Which companies will define the next decade of capital markets leadership? Here’s what BCG says

The domestic capital markets have delivered the highest total shareholder returns (TSR) globally over the last decade, outperforming all major developed and emerging markets alike, as per Boston Consulting Group’s (BCG) India Value Creators Report 2025.

The report shows that Indian companies delivered an average annual TSR of 15.2% between 2015 and 2025, surpassing the S&P 500 (13.6%), EU350 (7.0%), and major Asia-Pacific markets such as Japan, China, and Singapore. More importantly, India’s TSR outperformance was structurally healthier and was driven not just by revenue growth, but also by margin improvement and valuation multiple expansion.

Looking ahead, BCG says a company’s ability to adopt AI and apply digital technologies will be the key differentiator. Investors are moving beyond enthusiasm for AI pilots and demanding visibility into the measurable impact on cost structure, revenue, margins, and operating leverage. Companies that embed AI into their operating models — and, in due course, demonstrate returns — will define the next decade of capital markets leadership.

“India’s capital markets are no longer just riding macro momentum. They are evolving rapidly with sharper sectoral pivots, stronger capital stewardship, and tighter alignment between corporate leadership actions and investor expectations. What we are witnessing is a structural maturity in how Indian companies are being built, managed and valued,” said Kanchan Samtani, leader of BCG’s Corporate Finance & Strategy Practice for the Asia-Pacific region.

“The next wave of value creation will require sharper strategic focus, increased capital allocation discipline, and greater transparency. Growth alone may no longer be sufficient — companies must drive growth that translates into returns. Stronger alignment between business, financial and investor strategies will be the winning playbook to extend India’s advantage in an increasingly uncertain global environment,” said Akshay Kohli, leader of BCG’s Corporate Finance & Strategy Practice in India.

The report also identified three powerful shifts shaping India’s capital markets leadership. It showed that value creation has shifted from traditional consumption and financial sectors to capital-intensive and innovation-led industries.

“Sectors like Industrials, Green Energy, Metals & Mining, and Technology now lead the TSR rankings, driven by tailwinds such as PLI-led manufacturing, infrastructure investments, and scale up of digital-led businesses,” BCG’s India Value Creators Report 2025 said.

It further highlighted that family-owned businesses have consistently outperformed their non-family-owned counterparts, delivering 20.7% average TSR, over 640 basis points higher. The report attributes this to their long-term investment mindset and strategic diversification appetite, which have enabled them to become compounding value creators in India’s economy.

The study also said that India’s IPO market has transformed from a platform for liquidity to a pathway for sustainable value creation. Recent listings have outperformed relative to IPOs a decade ago, reflecting stronger governance, preparation, and post-listing maturity.

As part of its analysis, BCG also examined over 550 publicly listed companies covering around 95% of India’s total market capitalisation, to identify the Top 50 large-cap value creators from the past decade. What sets these companies apart is not just TSR outperformance, but the strong alignment in their underlying business, financial and investor strategies that have driven these outcomes.

“Many of these companies have actively reshaped their portfolios through M&A, carve-outs, IPOs, and strategic alliances. Across all types of such actions, the median 30-day excess return was 2.2% from the date of announcement, reinforcing that well-executed structural moves are positively received by the market. These actions have helped unlock trapped value in diversified portfolios, prepare high-growth units for independent scale, accelerate capability building through partnerships or tuck-in deals, enable balance sheet optimisation and facilitate impactful governance transitions,” BCG said in a report.

The report says India’s decade of outperformance has not only set a new benchmark but has also raised investor expectations.