Monsoon finally reaches Mumbai, but India faces driest June in 146 years

After nearly two weeks of stagnation, India’s southwest monsoon is finally showing signs of life, bringing a measure of relief to parts of the country that have been waiting for rain. Moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea have begun pushing into Mumbai, its suburbs and parts of south-east Gujarat, raising hopes that the delayed revival of rainfall may now be under way.

Even as rain begins to return, the impact of one of the weakest June monsoons in recent memory is already visible. Experts have pegged June 2026 as the driest in over a century. According to the latest India Meteorological Department data, the country received just 53.1 mm of rainfall between June 4 and June 22 against a normal of 97.6 mm, leaving India with a rainfall deficit of 46 per cent. Large parts of central, northern and peninsular India remain in the deficient or large-deficient rainfall category.

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The state-wise rainfall picture remains worrying. Madhya Pradesh, at the centre of India’s monsoon core zone, is running a 58 per cent deficit, while Maharashtra has recorded an 85 per cent shortfall. Gujarat remains 84 per cent below normal, making it one of the worst-hit states in the country. Chhattisgarh is down 71 per cent, while Jharkhand has a deficit of 71 per cent and Meghalaya 81 per cent.

Satellite imagery released by the IMD on June 22 showed the reason behind the prolonged dry spell. For days, cloud activity remained concentrated over the Bay of Bengal, eastern India and the Himalayan region, while large parts of central and western India stayed largely cloud-free. The absence of organised monsoon systems and weak moisture transport prevented the rain-bearing currents from advancing inland.

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Meteorologists now say conditions are gradually changing. Deep-layer monsoonal moisture has begun reaching Mumbai and adjoining regions. Moist winds are also spreading into south Gujarat, including the Surat region. Weather maps indicate strengthening moisture transport at mid-levels of the atmosphere, which points to the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon regaining strength.

As a result, rainfall activity is expected to increase gradually over the next 24 to 48 hours across parts of Maharashtra, Gujarat and central India. However, the revival has come after a prolonged delay. Weather experts say June 2026 is shaping up to be one of the driest June periods in more than a century of recorded observations, with rainfall deficits nearing levels seen only during major drought years.

The weak monsoon has already affected sowing activity, increased heat stress and raised concerns over water availability in several states. Farmers across Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat and Chhattisgarh have been waiting for sustained rainfall to begin large-scale kharif planting. The coming week will be crucial as the monsoon begins moving again and faces the task of making up for a massive rainfall deficit built up during the most important phase of the season.

What sectors get impacted by a delayed monsoon

When the monsoon stalls, the ripple effect triggers a sequence of economic shifts that alter consumption patterns nationwide.

The immediate blow lands on agriculture. Kharif sowing for essential crops like paddy, pulses, and sugarcane grinds to a halt, driving down immediate demand for seeds and fertilizers. This rural distress quickly bleeds into manufacturing. Tractor sales drop as farmers preserve cash, while two-wheeler volumes tank in rural markets, which typically drive 40% of standard motorcycle sales.

Simultaneously, FMCG giants face a double whammy: soaring raw commodity costs squeeze corporate margins just as rural families cut back on everyday staples. In the financial sector, delayed harvests mean microfinance institutions face slower loan repayments and rising non-performing asset risks.