India’s oil shuffle triggers China surge: What’s really going on with Russia’s crude?

Russian crude oil exports to India have collapsed by nearly two-thirds in August, while China has nearly doubled its intake, agency data shows.

According to commodity tracker Kpler, India’s imports of Russian crude have dropped to no more than 400,000 barrels a day this month, down from an average of 1.18 million barrels per day earlier this year. 

Meanwhile, China has stepped up sharply, buying about 75,000 barrels per day of Russia’s Urals crude, nearly double its year-to-date average of 40,000 barrels. These Urals shipments, sourced from Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports, had previously gone in large volumes to India.

“Generally, Chinese refineries are in a comfortable position to keep taking Russian oil for now, in contrast to Indian refiners,” said Jianan Sun, analyst at Energy Aspects, speaking to agency outlets.

This divergence comes as Washington tightens trade pressure on New Delhi. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday accused India of profiteering from Russian oil, buying it at discounted rates and reselling refined products at a premium. “This Indian arbitrage… is unacceptable,” Bessent said. “Buying cheap Russian oil, reselling it as product, it’s sprung up during the war.”

China, in contrast, has moved decisively. By the end of last week, Chinese refiners had secured 10 to 15 cargoes of Urals crude for October–November delivery — significantly more than usual, according to Kpler and Energy Aspects.

The shift underscores growing energy realignment. China remains Moscow’s top buyer and is capitalising on India's slowdown to lock in supply. India, meanwhile, faces mounting headwinds from Western scrutiny just as it seeks to balance strategic autonomy with diplomatic pressure.

With rising volatility in oil markets and sharpening global fault lines, energy flows are increasingly a barometer of geopolitics, and India’s retreat from Russian crude may mark more than just an economic recalibration.