Is China cutting off India’s water? Researcher flags steep Sutlej drop in satellite data

Is China quietly reducing the water flowing into India? That’s the question being raised by Dr. Y Nithiyanandam, a geospatial researcher and former NASA station manager, who shared satellite data showing a dramatic drop in the Sutlej River’s flow before it crosses the border.

In a post on X, Nithiyanandam pointed to findings, which show the water volume entering India via the Sutlej has fallen by over 75% in the past five years—declining from around 8,000 gigaliters to 2,000 gigaliters. 

“Is China already controlling the water that flows into India?” he asked, sparking concern about upstream developments.

The sharp drop in flow, he noted, raises two possibilities. Either China has altered or diverted the water flow, or the reduction is due to natural causes. But if glacial melt is accelerating in the Himalayas—as climate data suggests—shouldn’t river flow be increasing, at least in the short term?

Upstream, China has built a barrage and hydroelectric infrastructure at Zada Gorge in Tibet. These facilities give Beijing the technical capability to regulate how much water reaches India. But with no formal water-sharing treaty between the two countries—only a data-sharing agreement that lapsed in 2023—China faces little obligation to disclose how it manages the Sutlej.

While there is no public evidence confirming deliberate flow manipulation, China’s control capacity combined with the absence of transparent agreements leaves India exposed.

At the same time, researchers acknowledge natural factors are also at play. The Sutlej is heavily dependent on snow and glacier melt, contributing more than half of its annual discharge. But studies show the river basin has already lost 21% of its glacier volume since the 1980s, and as much as 55% could be gone by 2050. 

Though this initially leads to more water, sustained glacial loss eventually results in sharp declines.