Triangular contest in Assam's Dhubri: Will Badruddin Ajmal retain this minority stronghold or BJP ally stun?

Assam's Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency is all set to witness a triangular between INDIA alliance partners-- All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the grand old Congress party-- and NDA ally Asom Gana Parishad (AGP)'s Zabed Islam. Dhubri will go to polls to decide the fate of these three candidates in the third phase of the ongoing general elections on May 7. 

The Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency comprises of Mankachar, Salmara South, Dhubri, Gauripur, Golakganj, Bilasipara West, Bilasipara East, Goalpara East, Goalpara West, and Jaleswar assembly constituencies. The constituency was a Congress stronghold before the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Since 2009, AIUDF's Badruddin Ajmal has secured three consecutive wins from the constituency. 

While Ajmal looks to retain his turf, Deputy Leader of Opposition in Assam Assembly Rakibul Hussain and AGP's Zabed Islam are looking to spring a surprise in this AIUDF stronghold. Ajmal has represented the Dhubri Lok Sabha constituency since 2009 whereas Hussain has represented the Samaguri constituency since 2001.

Zabed Islam is AGP MLA from the Manakchar Lok Sabha constituency. He was also nominated from Dhubri as AGP's candidate in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. 

Dhubri-- an AIUDF bastion since 2009

The Dhubri Lok Sabha seat has been an AIUDF bastion since the 2009 general elections when Badruddin Ajmal was first elected as an MP. In this election, Ajmal won from Dhubri with a vote share of 76.31 per cent a margin of more than 1.84 lakh votes. 

Ajmal won from the seat again in 2014 with more than 5.92 lakh votes and a vote share of 43.26 per cent. The AIUDF chief bagged the seat for the third time in 2019 with more than 7.18 lakh votes and a vote share of 42.66 per cent. 

Badruddin Ajmal's popularity in the constituency can be attributed to infrastructure initiatives, construction of the Dhubri Phulbari Bridge, the establishment of Rupsi Airport, and development 
of Dhubri Medical College. He is also known for his fiery speeches regarding his contributions to the area. 

Some critics also view Ajmal's political stance as divisive. Ajmal stirred a hornet's nest earlier this year when he asked Muslims to avoid train travel during the Ram Mandir pran pratishtha ceremony in Ayodhya., He also labelled the BJP as the "biggest enemy of Muslims". 

Badruddin Ajmal vs Rakibul Hussain-- an old rivalry

Badruddin Ajmal has often attacked his Congress counterpart Rakibul Hassan in his speeches. Ajmal has accused Hassan of neglecting Dhubri during his 15-year-old tenure as a minister in the Assam government. 

He has also said that Dhubri is faced with issues such as D-voters or doubtful voters and detention camps due to the Congress leader's lack of attention to minority concerns. Rakibul Hussain, on the other hand, referred to Badruddin Ajmal as an "old tiger" in April this year. In response, Ajmal said, "I am not so old. I can marry again."

Dhubri demography

Dhubri is a Muslim majority constituency in Assam, with 55 per cent of them making up the constituency's total demography. The constituency has 40 per cent Hindus and 5 per cent voters belonging to other religious groups. The electorate comprises of 89 per cent voters from rural areas and 11 per cent of them from urban areas. The consituency has a 3.5 per cent population of Scheduled Castes (SCs) and 5.7 per cent population of Scheduled Tribes (STs).