Monsoon races ahead after Kerala delay: Enters Maharashtra, when will it reach Delhi?

The 2026 southwest monsoon is gathering pace after a delayed start, advancing into Maharashtra on June 6 and raising hopes for an early respite from scorching summer temperatures across northern India. While the monsoon arrived in Kerala three days later than normal on June 4, its subsequent progress has been swift, covering large stretches of the west coast and entering Maharashtra on schedule.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon has now spread across additional parts of the Arabian Sea, Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and several northeastern states. The weather agency said conditions remain favourable for further advancement over the next two to three days.

The northern limit of monsoon currently passes through Devgad in Konkan, Koppal in Karnataka, Anantapuramu in Andhra Pradesh and Chennai in Tamil Nadu. If the current pace continues, the monsoon is expected to move deeper into central India during the coming week before progressing toward northwest India.

When will monsoon reach Delhi?

Historically, the southwest monsoon reaches Delhi around June 27. Meteorologists expect the national capital to receive its first monsoon showers sometime between June 25 and June 30, provided the current advancement remains uninterrupted.

The rapid movement witnessed after the Kerala onset has improved prospects for a near-normal arrival in Delhi despite the initial delay. Before reaching the capital, the monsoon will need to advance through Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and parts of Rajasthan.

For residents of Delhi-NCR, the arrival of monsoon rains is particularly significant this year after prolonged heatwave conditions and above-normal temperatures through May and early June.

Maharashtra gets timely relief

The monsoon's arrival in Maharashtra on its normal schedule is expected to bring widespread rainfall across several districts. The rains will offer relief from intense summer heat and provide a crucial boost to kharif sowing activities.

Agriculture remains highly dependent on monsoon rainfall, with nearly 70% of India's annual precipitation occurring during the June-September season. A timely onset in key agricultural states is therefore closely watched by farmers, policymakers and commodity markets.

El Niño threat

Even as the monsoon advances steadily, weather experts are keeping a close watch on the Pacific Ocean, where El Niño conditions are forecast to develop later this year.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is an 80% chance of El Niño developing by August and a 90% probability that it will persist through November. Multiple climate models indicate the warming event could strengthen during the second half of 2026.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It often weakens the Indian monsoon by disrupting atmospheric circulation patterns that drive seasonal rainfall.

Reflecting these concerns, the IMD has revised its seasonal rainfall forecast downward and now expects India to receive around 90% of the Long Period Average rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, placing 2026 in the "below normal" category.