Monsoon update: India may receive above-average rains this year at 105%, IMD says

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday said India is expected to experience above-average monsoon rains this year at 105% of the long-period average (LPA). The IMD defines rainfall in the range of 105-110% of the LPA as "above-average". 

With a margin of error of ±5%, this projection suggests widespread seasonal rainfall. However, Ladakh, the North-East, and Tamil Nadu are likely to experience below-normal rainfall. The southwest monsoon begins its advance over Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September.

Key climatic factors such as El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are expected to remain neutral, creating a favourable environment for a strong monsoon. El Nino is a weather phenomenon that significantly impacts the South West monsoon in the Indian subcontinent.

Additionally, the snow cover over Eurasia and the Himalayan region is reported to be less than usual, a condition historically associated with above-average monsoon rains in India.