More women, fewer babies: Mohandas Pai says ageing population is India's next big crisis

India's demographic shift toward an ageing population could soon become its most pressing crisis, warned Mohandas Pai, Chairman of Aarin Capital, during his keynote address at the Stanford India Conference 2025. Citing hard data and long-term projections, Pai said, "India's biggest problem is going to be ageing."

"We've got 130 million people above the age of 60 today. It'll go to 200 million people. India is ageing very fast. India's fertility is down. Indian women are dominating and Indian women are going great guns," Pai said, as he highlighted the sharp drop in birth rates across the country, especially in southern states.

Pai, who has also served as chief financial officer at Infosys, noted that the whole of southern India is already below the replacement fertility rate. "India's population is growing at 0.8%. Fertility has come to 2.0 — below replacement rate. The whole of the south is at 1.6 to 1.7.and we are 1,020 women for 1,000 men. We have more women than men in India."

Pointing to regional disparities in growth and fertility, he stated, "Most people in Delhi sitting in JNU don't even look at data and bemoan the lack of employment. In the South, we have no people for employment. People come from the North to come because UP is now growing and is very good and we want UP to grow. Bihar is yet to grow. We get people from Jharkhand, West Bengal — which is a failed state — and Kerala etc. They all come to Bangalore and the South to work and we have a shortage of people."

On the gender and education front, Pai highlighted a notable reversal in trends: "Today the good news — we have more girls in school than boys. Many of the boys are rowdy boys who come out of school. Out of 100 kids entering class one, about 80 complete class 10. In the age group of 18 to 23, only 28% go to college. More women graduates than men. More women are coming out and more women are coming out in UP, in Rajasthan, in Madhya Pradesh.”

He also warned of population decline in the South. "In the South, we are running out. By 2035, Tamil Nadu's population will start shrinking in absolute numbers because we are not doing things which people should be doing well," Pai said.

Pai is not alone in sounding the alarm over declining fertility and rapidly ageing population in the South. Earlier this year, Zoho founder Sridhar Vembu cautioned against the long-term consequences of demographic decline, drawing parallels with Japan and China. In a post on X, he wrote, "Japan reached its peak technological prowess around 1990. ‘Japan as the number 1 economy, Japan overtaking the US’ were all serious topics then. What happened? Serious demographic decline." 

Highlighting China's similar trajectory, he added, "Demographic decline, once it sets in motion, is hard to reverse. I don't know any country that has reversed it." Vembu linked falling birth rates to lifestyle changes brought on by rapid development, saying, "Massive urbanisation, extreme lack of worklife balance, long commutes, loss of traditional culture, loss of religious faith, rise of nuclear family." 

Stressing the need for a cultural shift, he concluded, "This is another reason I prefer a rural life and I actively embrace our traditional culture. I want to pursue economic development that is pro-babies. In the long term, nothing else really matters!"