Merchandise exports rose 17% to $173.8 billion from $148.5 billion during the same period last year, while services exports reached $145 billion, up from $131.1 billion. "Most people, understandably, look at the top line and move on. I have learned to go straight to the annexures at the back, because that is where the story usually is," Goyal wrote in a blog.
Unlocking free trade agreements
Historically, India’s Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) faced criticism for delivering one-sided results, as complex rules-of-origin paperwork hindered domestic exporters while foreign importers utilised the concessions with ease.
The latest quadmester data suggests a clear departure from that trend. Exports to FTA partner countries grew 23.9% to $57.2 billion, significantly outpacing the 13.9% growth recorded with non-FTA nations. Consequently, the share of FTA partners in India's total exports expanded from 31.1% to 32.9%.
Importantly, the trade deficit with these partners narrowed from $34.2 billion to $32.6 billion, signaling that exports under these pacts are now expanding faster than imports. Singapore led the surge, with outbound shipments nearly doubling to add approximately $4 billion.
Meanwhile, exports to Oman grew by $0.6 billion, offering an early indicator of the opportunities created by the India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which entered into force on June 1, 2026.
Commenting on the shift, Goyal stated, "Preferential access through FTAs provides excellent opportunities for our exporters to expand their global footprint, access new markets, and deepen their presence internationally. Our exporters are steadily leveraging these opportunities to drive greater exports."
Emerging markets and farm transformations
Beyond conventional trading partners, non-FTA markets across Africa registered notable momentum. Shipments to Tanzania jumped by $2 billion, followed by South Africa at $1.7 billion and Kenya at $1.1 billion. The demand spans pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, automobiles, food items, textiles, and technology.
Addressing this geographic expansion, Goyal remarked, "India’s export story is not confined to a handful of traditional markets. And Africa stands out." He added a note of caution regarding the timeframe: "However, it is important to recognise that four months is a relatively short period, and export performance during this window may reflect some large, one-time shipments that may not be repeated in every quarter. But what these four months show is a country gradually building a wider and more diverse base of customers."
Concurrently, agricultural exports totaled $18.18 billion, reflecting a 4.5% year-on-year gain. A breakdown of the category reveals a move toward higher-value products:
- Basmati rice exports rose 25.4% to $1.05 billion.
- Other milled rice shipments reached nearly $588 million, up 13.7%.
- Castor oil exports hit $423 million.
- Other food preparations added nearly $284 million.
- Shrimp and prawn exports reached around $226 million.
- Instant coffee exports crossed $200 million.
Regarding the broader impact on the agricultural sector, Goyal emphasised, "They are increasingly value-added. The journey does not end when a crop leaves the farm. It can move through processing, packaging, cold chains, manufacturing, and branding before reaching a consumer on the other side of the world. That means an export order can create value for an entire ecosystem that includes farmers, fishermen and small processors across the country."
Services & industrial imports
The invisible driver of the trade balance remains the services sector, which registered a 10.6% increase to reach $145 billion over the four-month window. Driven by engineers, analysts, medical professionals, and specialized back-office support, this segment operates without shipping queues or port congestion.
Goyal observed, "No ships. No customs queues. Just Indian talent serving the world... Government can create the ecosystem. But it is our entrepreneurs and Indian professionals who take India’s capability to the world."
On the import side, total merchandise imports expanded to $292.3 billion, driven by substantial demand for industrial and technology inputs:
- Electronics components climbed 54.5% to $21.6 billion.
- Computer hardware and peripherals surged 84% to $12 billion.
- Accumulators and batteries increased 79.3% to $2.8 billion.
Rather than indicating economic drag, these inflows point toward an industrial base that is actively manufacturing, digitising, and building internal capacity. Outlining the long-term industrial objective, Goyal stated, "As India strengthens its semiconductor, electronics and advanced manufacturing capabilities, more of these value chains should move further upstream. The objective is not simply to import a component and assemble it here. It is to design it here, make it here, add value here and eventually export it from here. That is the journey we are on."
Reflecting on the trade policy environment required to sustain this direction, Goyal concluded, "The part I find most encouraging is that exporters found these markets themselves, one buyer and one shipment at a time. Our job in government is to keep the paperwork light, keep the credit flowing, keep the ports quick, make the agreements usable, open more doors, and then get out of the way of people who understand their business."