UP Rajya Sabha election 2026: Will the 10th seat be decided by cross-voting? Here's what we know

With the contest for the 10th Rajya Sabha seat turning into a tense test of numbers and nerves, both the ruling side and the Opposition are keeping a close watch on each other’s MLAs amid the possibility of cross-voting. The Samajwadi Party has claimed that some NDA legislators are in touch with it and may cross-vote if they are assured of tickets, Aaj Tak reported, citing sources.

The contest for the 10th seat is being seen as dependent on cross-voting, as the Samajwadi Party does not have the numbers to win a third seat on its own, while the BJP also does not have enough strength to secure an eighth seat without support from outside its committed tally. In this situation, some MLAs could vote against their party line and back a candidate from the other side.

The report said jailed SP MLA Ramakant Yadav will not be able to vote in the Rajya Sabha election. With seven Assembly seats lying vacant, a maximum of 395 votes can be cast. By this calculation, 37 votes are needed to win one Rajya Sabha seat.

After excluding the MLAs who had rebelled against the SP in the previous Rajya Sabha election, the party has 99 votes, including those of two Congress MLAs. To win three seats, the SP needs 108 votes. This means it needs to arrange nine additional votes for its third candidate.

The votes of two Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP) MLAs, Abbas Ansari and Jagdish Narayan Rai, are being seen as likely to go to the SP. Jagdish Narayan Rai had also voted for the SP candidate in the previous election. SP strategists have also claimed that some MLAs from the Nishad Party and Apna Dal (S) are in touch with them. According to SP sources, some among them are ready to switch sides if they are guaranteed tickets.

SP sources have further claimed that two ministers in the BJP government are uneasy because of the possibility of being denied tickets. One of them is from western Uttar Pradesh, and it is being said that the presence of the RLD has affected his political equations. According to SP sources, the other minister has already met the SP leadership.

The SP has also claimed that six to seven BJP MLAs are in contact with it. According to sources, these legislators may cross-vote if they are promised tickets. SP strategists believe that this could help the party secure the extra votes needed for its third candidate, making cross-voting the key factor in the fight for the 10th Rajya Sabha seat.