Sarna highlighted India’s reliance on imports across crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). He also pointed out that parts of India’s renewable-energy ecosystem remain dependent on imports from China, including silicon wafers.
The dependence makes security of energy routes increasingly important, particularly when disruptions occur around strategically important maritime corridors.
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The Strait of Hormuz is among the choke points that have brought these risks into focus. Sarna said disruptions around Hormuz and other maritime routes underline the need for India to strengthen the resilience of its energy supply.
“Unless we can manage to find new sources, energy is going to be a restraint on everything that we try to do,” Sarna said, emphasising the need to diversify energy sources and strengthen domestic capabilities.
Strategic autonomy becomes more important
Sarna linked energy security to the broader question of strategic autonomy as global economic and geopolitical relationships become more fragmented.
He said the international environment is shifting from a relatively predictable order towards one marked by conflict, rivalry and competition. Tariffs, sanctions and supply-chain disruptions are also becoming increasingly consequential for economies and investors.
For India, he said, strategic autonomy means building relationships with different powers while keeping national interests at the centre.
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Supply-chain diversification key
Sarna also cautioned against viewing India as the sole beneficiary of the global China-plus-one strategy. While India has gained from supply-chain diversification, countries in Southeast Asia and Mexico are also competing for manufacturing and investment opportunities.
At the same time, several Indian inputs continue to originate from China. Sarna said India needs to diversify these supply chains and increase domestic production, warning that without stronger local capabilities, the country’s manufacturing capacity could eventually face a ceiling.
The former diplomat also pointed to defence as another area where India is transitioning towards greater domestic capability. While defence sourcing has diversified beyond Russia towards the US, Israel and France, he said technology sharing, foreign investment and international partnerships will remain important.
For investors, Sarna’s broader message was to look beyond immediate geopolitical headlines and assess how these structural shifts could reshape industries, supply chains and capital allocation.
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