'Real potential for war': Top US expert warns India-Pakistan tensions could spin out of control, turn nuclear

US political scientist John Mearsheimer has warned that the current India-Pakistan crisis could spiral into a full-scale war, potentially involving nuclear weapons. He expressed concern over the absence of firm US intervention, which had historically helped de-escalate similar standoffs in the past.

India is weighing its options to retaliate against Pakistan after a terror strike in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. 

"This is a very dangerous situation. These are two nuclear-armed countries that have a history of fighting wars. There is real potential for a real war and there is real potential for nuclear use," Mearsheimer said in an interview with The Spectator, highlighting how past US administrations actively worked to prevent India from launching major strikes on Pakistan.

"In the past, the United States has intervened in crises between these two countries to go to great lengths to shut them down. Mainly what we've tried to do is make sure that the Indians didn't launch a major attack against Pakistan, which would then leave Pakistan maybe to use nuclear weapons," he said.

However, he expressed doubts about the Trump administration's ability to manage the crisis. "You don't have the sense that the Trump administration is paying careful attention to this conflict or that President Trump will intervene in a major way to dampen down the tensions the way previous presidents have. Because he's so busy on so many other fronts."

"So it could be the case, let's hope this is not the case, that this one could spin out of control and you could have a real war and nuclear weapons might even be used," he warned.

Explaining the military calculus, Mearsheimer pointed out the imbalance between the two sides. "If you look at the conventional balance of power between Pakistan and India, it greatly favors the Indians. And we've always feared that a conflict that started off at the conventional level would escalate to the nuclear level because the Pakistanis would feel compelled to turn to nuclear weapons if they were losing conventionally, which we expected to happen."

He clarified that while escalation is not inevitable, the threat is real. "None of this is to say that in the past or even now a war will happen and nuclear weapons will be used. But the fact is there is real potential for a real war and there is real potential for nuclear use. And in that kind of situation, you want President Trump, you want the United States to be deeply involved in trying to settle this sort of a shooting match. But I don't have the sense that that's what we're doing. Maybe we are, and I'm just not reading about it. Let's hope that's the case."

When asked if the US could use trade or diplomacy to de-escalate the situation, Mearsheimer said, "I don't think we would do that. I think relations between the Trump administration and the Modi administration are very good and we are not likely to play hardball with Modi in the way you just described."

"Maybe Trump could tell the Indians that he'd give them a real sweetheart deal if he felt they were on the verge of going to war and Trump didn't want them to go to war," he added.

While Mearsheimer fears nuclear war, Pakistani-origin author Harris Sultan argues that the likelihood of Islamabad using nuclear weapons remains slim. He said dictators value their own lives more than anything. "They would never use nuclear weapons in a regional conflict if it meant guaranteeing the destruction of their entire country," he wrote on X.

Sultan suggested that even in the event of an Indian offensive in Pakistani-Occupied Kashmir, it may not provoke a nuclear response. Pakistani generals are unlikely to sacrifice the rest of Pakistan for PoK, he stated. "It's possible they might use a tactical nuke on their own territory to avoid a nuclear response from India, but that would not come without serious consequences—which could lead to the sudden disarmament of the Pakistani military. The Pakistani military has lost every single war—I think they’re prepared to lose another one."

US Vice President JD Vance has also said that he is worried about any time "a hot spot breaking out, especially between two nuclear powers". "Our hope here is that India responds to this terrorist attack in a way that it doesn't lead to a broader regional conflict. And we hope that Pakistan, to the extent that they are responsible, cooperates with India to make sure that the terrorists sometimes operating in their territory are hunted down and dealt with. That’s how we hope this unfolds," he said in an interview with Fox News.