‘Sudden change carries a lesson’: Kanwal Sibal says Trump’s approach shows the pitfalls of personalised decisions

Donald Trump’s latest post about India-US continuing the trade talks, and the subsequent response by Prime Minister Narendra Modi stating that the teams are working to conclude the limitless potential bodes well for both the countries, said a former foreign secretary. The optics at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit might have caused some rethink in the White House, said Kanwal Sibal.

The former secretary said, “This is a good development. India under Modi has stood its ground unlike the EU, Japan, South Korea and others. Done this without polemics. Redounds to the prestige of Modi and India internationally. The visuals of the SCO summit may have caused some rethink in the White House. However, this sudden change of Trump’s tone carries a lesson. The tone can change again as abruptly.”

The US President is not bothered about inconsistency but, in fact, thinks of it as a form of unpredictability that gives the US leverage in negotiations, said Sibal. “He has exposed his henchmen (Bessent, Lutnik, Navarro) to ridicule as they were insulting India and most probably have been caught by surprise by the change in Trump’s approach. Shows the pitfalls in personalised and not process driven decisions,” said Sibal. 

He pointed out that resuming negotiations without lifting penalties on India would put pressure on India to make concessions beyond what has already been negotiated. India might have to yield some ground which will be enough for Trump to cry victory, Sibal acknowledged.  

“Hopefully, the rhetoric on the US side will now subside. Issues had gone beyond trade negotiations to target the Indian community in the US because of this rhetoric. Fingers crossed!” he said.

Trump said India and the US are continuing their trade negotiations, and said he was looking forward to speaking with PM Modi, whom he referred to as his "very good friend." Trump announced on Truth Social that both countries are working to address trade barriers and he is confident of reaching a successful conclusion.

Responding to Trump's post, PM Modi said India and the US are close friends and natural partners, and that the trade talks will unlock the potential of the India-US partnership. 

This statement marks a softer tone compared to Trump's earlier remarks when he said India and Russia had been lost to China, following the meeting between PM Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the SCO Summit. Apart from the 50 per cent tariffs, which include a 25 per cent that was imposed for New Delhi’s continued purchase of Russian oil, the Trump administration had gone all out on their anti-India commentary and critical rhetoric. From laughing at the value of the Rupee, calling the Indian economy ‘dead’, threatening New Delhi and saying that the road to peace in Ukraine runs through India’s capital, the Trump administration had taken a sharp departure from their earlier policies on India.