'Vidarbha, Marathwada, and...': Key battlegrounds where Maharashtra will be won and lost again

After a stunning victory in Haryana, the BJP has set its sights on reversing fortunes in Maharashtra. In the Lok Sabha polls, the ruling Mahayuti alliance -- which comprises BJP, Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar's NCP -- suffered a significant setback in the state, where its tally dropped from 41 to just 17 seats.

The BJP suffered a major jolt as its numbers came down from 23 to just 9, while the opposition Maha Vikas Agadhi (MVA) gained 30 seats. Losses across regions, barring Thane-Konkan, had put the Mahayuti alliance on the defensive. However, the Haryana win came just in time.

For assembly elections, two regions -- Western Maharashtra (70 seats) and Vidarbha (62) -- are crucial for the Mahayuti alliance in its fight against the resurgent MVA. Western Maharashtra and Vidarbha together account for nearly half of 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra. Marathwada is another key region in terms of seat numbers, 46.

To win Maharashtra, the BJP, which is likely to contest on 150 seats, will have to better its strike rate. In 2014, the BJP performed impressively in these regions, securing 24 seats in Western Maharashtra, 44 in Vidarbha, and 15 in Marathwada. However, by the 2019 elections, it lost ground — its Vidarbha tally dropped to 29, though it marginally improved in Marathwada.

The party's performance worsened in 2024's Lok Sabha polls, with the MVA gaining the upper hand in all three regions, reducing BJP to zero seats in Marathwada and pushing it further back in Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra.

The BJP lost 3 Lok Sabha seats - that it held in 2019 - each in Western Maharashtra and Vidarbha. The party was decimated in Marathwada, where it could not win any seats. In 2019, the party had won 4 of 9 seats.

As per the Lok Sabha numbers, the MVA - which comprises Congress, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena, and Sharad Pawar's NCP - is ahead in Western Maharashtra, Vidarbha, and Marathwada ( these three regions together have 178 assembly seats).

"But certainly a Vidhan Sabha election is not a Lok Sabha election. In the Lok Sabha election, the issues can be very different to Vidhan Sabha polls, which become highly localised," said India Today's Rajdeep Sardesai. He pointed out that after the Lok Sabha elections, there has been course correction by the Mahayuti.

"They (Mahayuti) have made a genuine attempt to try and somehow transform their image to being seen as a welfarist government. It may cost the exchequer but that's another matter," Sardesai said while referring to a host of schemes such as the Ladki Bahin Scheme, and toll waivers.

Sardesai further stated that the reason why the MVA scored over the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha was that they won two of the big battles - Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra. "That's where this election will be won and lost again. If you win two of the big battles...that to my mind decides an election. Has it changed dramatically is the question mark."

The BJP has deployed its senior hands like Amit Shah and Bhupendra Yadav to to counter the MVA’s momentum. Sardesai pointed out that Yadav has done 168 meetings of OBC groups in these regions. The saffron party is targeting the smaller OBC groups, their leaders, and trying to create OBC versus Maratha like it did to some extent in Haryana. "It may work, it may not. We don't know but that's a strategy. I don't know what the new strategy of the MVA is. They are relying on the same politics that they practiced in Lok Sabha."

Maharashtra will vote in a single phase on November 20.