Weakest monsoon since 2009? India stares at 15% rainfall deficit as El Nino strengthens

India is headed for its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with rainfall expected to end the June-September season around 15% below the long-term average, according to two senior weather department sources.

If confirmed, the shortfall would make 2026 India’s driest monsoon season since 2009 and nearly double the 8% deficit projected in the India Meteorological Department’s initial forecast issued in April.

“We are witnessing the impact of El Nino on monsoon rainfall. It is likely to be severe in September, and we could see a double-digit deficit in rainfall,” a senior IMD official told Reuters, requesting anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the media.

The IMD is expected to release its official forecast for September at the end of this month.

Crop output and food prices at risk

The weak monsoon could hurt agricultural production, reduce rural incomes and push up food prices in the world’s fifth-largest economy. India receives nearly 70% of its annual rainfall from the June-to-September monsoon.

A lack of adequate rain in September, a crucial month for crop development, could affect summer-sown crops including cotton, soybean, corn and pulses. It may also reduce soil moisture required for winter crops such as wheat and rapeseed.

India has received 13% less rainfall than average since the monsoon began on June 1. Rainfall was 35.4% below average in June, while a 1% surplus in July provided temporary relief. Rainfall in August has so far remained 15% below normal.

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El Nino expected to intensify

Most parts of India, except some eastern states, are likely to record below-average rainfall in September, the first IMD source said.

The monsoon could also begin withdrawing from northwestern India a few days earlier than usual next month unless a fresh weather system develops, a second weather department source said. The monsoon typically begins in June and starts to retreat by September 17 from northwestern parts of ​the country, ending across the ​country by mid-October.

El Nino, marked by warmer-than-usual Pacific Ocean temperatures, is strengthening and expected to intensify in September. The climate pattern often suppresses rainfall over India in the past and has previously contributed to droughts, crop losses and restrictions on grain exports.

IMD warns of below-normal rains 

In its latest official outlook, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall during August-September 2026, with precipitation expected to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average across large parts of the country. Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over parts of Peninsular India, Central India, northern parts of northwest India and the eastern and northeastern regions.

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The government has also said the IMD’s second-stage seasonal forecast placed full-season rainfall at 90% of the LPA, compared with 92% in its initial forecast, as El Niño conditions strengthen.

(With inputs from Reuters)