Why your Swiggy-Zomato order may get costlier now, here’s the math

Your Swiggy-Zomato order may now get costlier. And no points for guessing that the war’s to be blamed for it!

Here’s what’s happening – thanks to the rise in fuel prices, the overall pricing of an order is likely to go up. According to a report by Elara Capital, the average delivery cost is estimated to be in the range of ₹35-50 per order for quick commerce, and ₹55-60 for food delivery.

How the delivery cost stacks up:

If the fuel accounts for ~20 per cent of the delivery, then the implied fuel cost per order would be ₹9-10 on a blended basis.

This means that a ~4 per cent fuel price increase would imply a negative impact of ₹0.44 per order.

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If fuel prices are further increased to ~₹10 per litre in the next 3-6 months, then the blended per-order impact would increase to ~₹1-1.2 per order.

“This impact is likely to be shared partly through customer pass-through, partly absorbed by the platforms and partly reflected in compression of delivery partner economics,” it said.

Then there is the question of EVs…

As per Elara Capital, if fuel prices increased by ₹10 per litre, EV and cycle penetration could be higher in quick commerce at ~30-40 per cent, while in food delivery it could be ~20 per cent.

“On a blended basis, we assume that the effective fuel-linked impact would apply to ~70 per cent of total orders. Hence, adjusted for EV/cycle penetration, even in the case of a ~₹10/ litre fuel hike, the net EBITDA impact may be closer to ~₹1-2 billion, implying only ~ 4-5/10-12 per cent FY27E adjusted EBITDA downgrade for ETERNAL/SWIGGY, respectively. The impact is higher for Swiggy given its lower profitability cushion and ongoing path towards contribution break-even in quick commerce,” it said.

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Fuel-led cost pressures

The report added that Eternal (Zomato) is better placed than Swiggy to manage fuel-led cost pressures. It said this is due to the stronger pass-through ability and higher ad revenue scale.

“Eternal’s customer base is more premium and less price-sensitive, which gives the company a higher propensity to recover cost rise through platform fees, delivery fee optimisation and handling charges across both food delivery and quick commerce. Further, Eternal’s larger scale and stronger ad revenue base provide an additional margin cushion versus Swiggy. In contrast, Swiggy may face a higher impact, given lower profitability cushion in quick commerce and a more sensitive customer base. Hence, while both the platforms have pass-through levers, Eternal’s ability to absorb and recover fuel-led cost inflation is stronger,” it argued.