As India steps into the new calendar year, economists are assessing whether the economy is entering a so-called ‘Goldilocks phase’ — a period marked by steady growth, improving demand and manageable inflation. In this discussion, Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at CPR and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, explains how coordinated policy reforms undertaken in 2025 could begin delivering tangible results in calendar year 2026, even in the absence of major global trade tailwinds. He highlights the revival in private final consumption expenditure (PFCE), which has grown at 7.8%, signalling a reversal of the slowdown seen over the past few years and suggesting a transfer of income strength to households. Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist at Bandhan Bank, adds that private consumption remains the bedrock of India’s growth model, typically contributing a large share to GDP expansion, and its renewed momentum provides a strong foundation for investment-led growth ahead. Together, they outline why the recovery in consumption, combined with reform-driven momentum, could shape India’s economic trajectory in 2026.
With India’s first advance estimates pointing to weaker-than-expected nominal GDP growth, attention now turns to the assumptions the government may make in the forthcoming Union Budget. In this conversation, Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at CPR and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, outlines why policymakers are likely to rely on a broad set of inflation forecasts from the RBI, government think tanks and the Chief Economic Adviser’s office. He suggests that with CPI inflation expected to hover around 3.5–4% and WPI inflation around 2.5–3%, nominal GDP growth assumptions for the next fiscal year could settle in the 9.5–10.5% range. Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist, Bandhan Bank, adds that a partial normalisation of the gap between real and nominal GDP is likely, making a near double-digit nominal growth estimate a realistic working assumption for the upcoming Budget.
India’s nominal GDP growth has come in at around 8%, more than 200 basis points lower than the assumptions made in the Union Budget, raising important questions about fiscal management, banking profitability and growth expectations ahead. In this discussion, Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist, Bandhan Bank, explains why the unusually narrow gap between real and nominal GDP reflects persistently low inflation rather than an economic shock. He highlights the challenges this creates for managing the fiscal deficit, given a lower-than-expected nominal GDP denominator, and the potential implications for credit growth, deposit mobilisation and corporate earnings. Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at CPR and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, shares his outlook on inflation trends, commodity prices and the GDP deflator, suggesting that nominal growth is likely to normalise in FY27 as CPI and WPI pressures gradually pick up. The conversation underscores how high growth with low inflation, while desirable, presents near-term policy and fiscal trade-offs for the government.
India’s economy is expected to grow at a robust 7.4% in FY26, according to the Government of India’s First Advance Estimates, marking a sharp rise from 6.5% in FY25. In this edition of Business Today, Siddharth Zarabi, Group Editor, Business Today, anchors a detailed discussion with Saugata Bhattacharya, Senior Fellow at CPR and Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, and Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief Economist at Bandhan Bank, on the drivers behind India’s growth momentum. The estimates project nominal GDP growth of 8% and real GVA growth of 7.3%, led by strong expansion in the services sector, particularly financial, real estate and professional services, along with steady growth in manufacturing and construction, rising private consumption, and improved gross fixed capital formation. The panel analyses what the FY26 growth outlook means for the Union Budget, inflation trends, investment climate, and the broader Indian economic outlook amid global uncertainties
A recent preview by JM Financial, based on provisional updates from 24 banks and four NBFCs for the third quarter of FY26, highlights continued strength in loan growth for financial stocks.
CSB Bank was trading 7.33 per cent higher at Rs 517.55 apiece. Ujjivan SFB advanced 4.13 per cent to Rs 58.10. Bandhan Bank gained 3.04 per cent to Rs 149.
Stocks including Coal India, Adani Enterprises, Bajaj Finance, Vedanta, YES Bank, Dixon Technologies, Sobha, Hindustan Zinc and more will be in the spotlight on Monday, January 05.
Indian banks are expected to demonstrate a visible recovery in their third quarter of FY26, according to a preview by JM Financial.
ICICI Securities forecasts a relatively stronger Q3FY26 for SBI, Kotak Mahindra Bank, City Union Bank, and Karur Vysya Bank, while IndusInd Bank, Yes Bank, and Bandhan Bank could see softer results.
An analyst from Arihant Capital Markets said that YES Bank is maintaining the lower top lower bottom formation which is a sign of weakness with the stock having taken support at the 150-days SMA.
Stocks including Eternal, IndiGo, ICICI Bank, ONGC, Lenskart, Ola Electric, Whirlpool, MTAR Tech, Biocon, CEAT, Pine Labs and more will be in the spotlight on Monday, December 08.





