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According to Shriram Subramanian, founder of InGovern, a proxy advisory firm, the approval of shareholders is what will clinch it. "It does not matter how much the Zee promoters hold. Even a person with a zero per cent holding can attempt a deal as long as the shareholders give the go-ahead," he says. In the midst of all this, it is possible that a hostile bid may take place and like any other case, goes back to the shareholders.
There is no word on what will happen now or for that matter, who will make the first move. Subramanian points to a few potential scenarios - Invesco has already called for an EGM and Zee may decide to have it on the same day, leading to the most interesting situation. There is also a chance that Invesco withdraws its EGM call - in any case, it is to be conducted within 45 days after the request is made and no date has been announced yet.
"The whole development on Zee-Sony is actually now a positive for Invesco. It has Sony getting listed in India and the emergence of a massive new company," Subramanian explains. Whether Invesco will still push for the EGM and the appointment of six new independent directors is not clear.
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Chandra, with this deal, has kept potential bidders out and is confident that the board is firmly on his side, says a former Zee official. "The international investors have been quietened and Chandra has retained control." He anticipates Zee shares to do well because of fund infusion from Sony ($1.57 billion or Rs 12,000 crore) and "that will keep the minority and other opposing shareholders quiet and Invesco's argument too stands neutralised."
Meanwhile NV Capital co-founder Vivek Menon thinks that the "corporate governance overhang of Zee Entertainment should also fade away with this merger and enhance investor confidence. Also, the combined entity will be in a superior position to compete with Disney more effectively both on distribution and advertising side."
The merger announcement has surprised everyone. Chandra's Zee is sitting pretty now, unlike a few days ago when it was staring down the barrel. As an investment banker puts it, "Zee was looking for a white knight (and) is now close to being (a) king."
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