'Completely made up': Financial advisor questions GDP data, calls 1.55% CPI 'quite questionable'

Intro: Akshat Shrivastava, Founder of Wisdom Hatch, has raised questions over the credibility of India’s recent GDP and inflation numbers, arguing that the government’s economic narrative is “headline management” rather than a reflection of ground realities.

Body copy: In a post on X (formally Twitter), Shrivastava wrote, “For the last several years, we have done massive headline management of our economy. Whenever there are any critical topics — like GST reduction or FII outflow — some shiny new news is thrown at you. You get confused, but forget to ask the basic thing: GDP is growing at 8.8%. But is your cost of living really growing just by 1.55% a year?”*

Shrivastava urged people not to take official numbers at face value but to ask “basic questions” about whether the data aligns with lived experiences. “In this day and age, if you decide to be an ostrich, then the joke is on you. This is not a criticism, this is a fact,” he added.

Dissecting the latest data, Shrivastava highlighted the disconnect between the reported 8.8% nominal GDP growth and the 1% inflation figure. By the government’s formula, this implies a real GDP growth rate of 7.8%. He questioned the plausibility of such low consumer price inflation in a country where household expenses are visibly rising.

“Do you really feel this way? If not, then the nominal GDP data of 8.8% is completely made up,”* Shrivastava argued. He acknowledged that inflation is not the same as the GDP deflator but said he was using it as a proxy to simplify the concept for beginners.

Calling the 1.55% CPI number “quite questionable,” Shrivastava suggested that the only way it could be explained is if a large part of the population’s consumption is covered by subsidies or freebies, insulating them from price escalation. “But again, this would not form a part of CPI. So 1.55% CPI does not make much sense,” he noted.

The Indian economy has demonstrated strong growth in the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26 (Q1 FY 2025-26), as reported by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). The country’s Real GDP has expanded by 7.8% in comparison to 6.5% in Q1 of FY 2024-25, reflecting the resilience and strength of various sectors. The impressive performance has been largely driven by buoyant growth in the services sector, which saw a remarkable 9.3% growth in the quarter.