GDP Q4FY23 numbers to be released today: RBI, NSO, SBI estimates, expected growth, analysts’ views & more 

The gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the fourth quarter of FY23 will be released on Wednesday. Analysts have estimated that India’s GDP growth will hover around 4.9-5.5 per cent in the January-March quarter, up from 4.4 per cent in the previous quarter. The Indian economy grew at 4.4 per cent year-on-year in three months to December 2022, much below 6.3 per cent in September.  

RBI, NSO GDP estimates  

While the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said in its annual report that real GDP in Q4FY23 is estimated to grow at 5.1 per cent, the National Statistical Office (NSO) estimated FY23 GDP growth to stand at 7 per cent.  

SBI Q4, FY23 GDP estimates 

The State Bank of India in its Ecowrap said that it forecast the GDP growth for Q4FY23 at 5.5 per cent. It further said: “At this rate, India’s GDP growth for FY23 is likely at 7.1 per cent”. 

Analysts’ views on upcoming GDP Q4 numbers  

Analysts believe that India’s GDP growth for the current year is expected to hover around 7 per cent. Brokerage B&K Securities is of the view that current year’s GDP growth is likely to be around 7 per cent. The brokerage said current year’s growth may be driven by private consumption as well as the services sector.  

B&K Securities, however, added a word of caution as it said India’s GDP growth in FY24 will be impacted negatively by moderation in private consumption. It also added that slowing global economy is another cause of concern as it will lead to sluggish exports, impacting manufacturing and growth adversely.  

Financial services company Emkay Global Financial Services said that the growth in Q4 is likely to be driven by the momentum in trade, hotel and transportation as well as the rise in government spending. It added there are also signs of consumption recovery.  

Emkay Global Financial Services lead economist Madhavi Arora said: “Net exports were less of a drag to growth amid lower trade deficit and higher services net exports. We see Q4 GDP at 5.1 per cent and see FY23 at 7 per cent. However, we expect growth to slow to 5.7 per cent in FY24”.  

Rating agency Icra said it expects India’s GDP growth for Q4FY23 to be at 4.9 per cent, a modest rise from 4.4 per cent in Q3FY23. The ratings agency also said that this quarter’s GDP growth will be driven by the services sector.  

Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist and Head-Research and Outreach at Icra said economic activity in Q4FY23 remained uneven with domestic demand for services outpacing the demand for goods and robust exports of services amidst a contracton in merchandise items.  

Nayar was quoted as saying by news agency PTI: "Lower commodity prices offered relief for margins in some sectors, while trends in investment activity and government spending were mixed. However, unseasonal rains are expected to have affected the rabi output of some crops, weighing upon the growth of the agri GVA".  

Also read: Adani Ports Q4 results: Net profit rises 5% to Rs 1,159 cr, firm declares Rs 5 dividend

Also watch: Top news on 31st May: India GDP data to be out today, Nifty, Market outlook today, Shopping on Amazon to get expensive, New Range Rover Sport SV, Rahul Gandhi’s Stanford speech, World No Tobacco Day

Also watch: India's Q4 GDP growth pegged at 5.5%, FY23 growth seen at 7%; Will India continue to surpass China?

Also watch: Meet Bimal Patel, the brain behind the new triangular Parliament building inaugurated on May 28 by PM Modi; check his fees, projects, education and more