High probability of El Nino during monsoon period, rainfall likely to be normal: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that there is a high possibility of the development of an El Nino weather pattern during the monsoon season this year. However, monsoon rainfall is likely to be normal. The season is likely to produce 96 per cent of normal rainfall, the Met Department said. 

The IMD said that rainfall in June is likely to be below normal. The rainfall in June is likely to be below 92 per cent of the normal average. Earlier, IMD said that the monsoon’s onset over Kerala will be on June 4, with a model error of plus/minus 4 days. 

The annual southwest monsoon starts its journey into the Indian subcontinent from the Kerala coast typically around June 1. The monsoon is vital for India, providing about 70 per cent of annual rain and impacting key crops, such as rice, wheat, cotton, sugarcane, soybeans, and peanuts. 

Addressing the stage-2 long rage forecast for Southwest Monsoon 2023, the Met Department on Friday said that rainfall during the June-September period is likely to be 96 per cent of the long-term average, with an error margin of +/-4 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).

As per IMD definition, average, or normal, rainfall is when it is between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 87 cm for the four-month season beginning June.

The Met Department added that normal-to-below normal rainfall is expected in some areas of northwest India, parts of west-central India, and some pockets of northeast India this year. 

During the press conference on Friday, the IMD said there is a high probability of the development of El Nino conditions during the monsoon season this year. However, it said there is no direct relation between El Nino and monsoon.

El Nino, which is the phenomenon of warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is associated with the weakening of monsoon winds and dry weather in India. This year's El Nino conditions are after three consecutive La Nina years. La Nina, which is the opposite of El Nino, typically brings good rainfall during the monsoon season.

Earlier, IMD had said that El Nino conditions are expected to develop around July, and their impact may be felt in the second half of the monsoon season.

In April, private weather forecaster Skymet had predicted a “below-normal” southwest monsoon on account of El Nino conditions with a 60 per cent of chance of drought. Even that time, IMD had said the monsoon rainfall will be normal. 

Earlier this month, Skymet again predicted that the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala could be delayed this year and the month of June can see prolonged hot weather.  

In a string of tweets, Jatin Singh, founder-director of Skymet, said that monsoon onset looks feeble and delayed, which would affect the sowing of key kharif crops, like Rice, maize, and cotton.

The monsoon showers, also known as southwest monsoon, are very crucial for India’s agriculture sector, which accounts for about 18 per cent of the economy. Nearly half of India's farmland depends on annual June-September monsoon showers to grow crops. The monsoon also affects the Dalal Street and policymakers in the government.

"A slightly late onset and below normal rainfall in June 2023 can be mitigated by the seasonally healthy reservoir levels. A normal distribution of rainfall in July 2023 will be critical to ensure the timely sowing of kharif crops over the majority of the country. ICRA expects the GDP growth to moderate to ~6% in FY2024, with a downside risk of up to 50 bps from the materialisation of El Nino conditions, even as frontloaded capex by the GoI and the States and rapid execution of infra projects could provide an upside,"  said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, Head - Research & Outreach, ICRA Ltd.