IMF says new statistical series could improve India GDP estimates; fresh forecast due in October WEO

India’s latest GDP data could see improved estimates following changes to the country’s statistical framework, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday, while flagging that its next assessment of the Indian economy will come with the October World Economic Outlook.

IMF Director of Communications Julie Kozack said India’s real GDP grew 7.8% in the second quarter, above both the IMF staff’s expectations and consensus estimates. The stronger-than-expected outturn was driven by stronger activity in the services sector and exports, she said.

“The outturn also underscores the resilience of the Indian economy despite the energy price shock,” Kozack said, adding that India remains a key growth engine for the global economy.

On concerns around the quality and transparency of India’s GDP data, Kozack pointed to changes incorporated in the latest GDP release.

The latest release included a new index of industrial production as well as a new producer price index series. According to Kozack, the two new series “should help improve India’s GDP estimates”.

The IMF welcomed the steps being taken by India to modernise its macroeconomic statistics and encouraged authorities to continue strengthening the statistical framework and data quality.

The comments come as India’s economy faces renewed pressure from elevated crude oil prices amid the ongoing West Asia crisis. Brent crude has risen to around $100 a barrel, raising concerns for large oil importers such as India.

Kozack said higher energy prices put pressure on the balance of payments of oil-importing countries and can also affect their fiscal positions.

However, she said India entered the shock from a “stronger economic position” and that the IMF was continuing to monitor the impact of higher oil prices on the economy.

The IMF is now preparing its new forecasts for India, with the next assessment due alongside the October World Economic Outlook.

“So far, what we’ve seen in India, as I noted, was quite a lot of resilience to the energy price shock,” Kozack said.