India’s ad revenue growth to slowdown in 2023 to $17.3 billion: GroupM study

GroupM has trimmed India’s advertising revenue growth forecast for 2023 from 16.8% projected earlier to 12%, totalling $17.3 billion, according to the media investment firm’s latest 'This Year Next Year' Mid-Year Global Forecast 2023.  

In December 2022, WPP’s Media Investment Group had estimated a 16.8% growth. “The macroeconomic environment has led some markets to trim expectations for 2023 as compared to our December forecast, including India (from 16.8% to 12.0%),” the report said. In 2024, India is projected to see ad revenue growth of 13.6%. 

Despite this downward revision India is projected to see the one of highest growths in ad revenue in 2023 among the markets profiled, although on a much lower base. For instance, China’s ad revenue is expected to grow 7.9% to $150.6 billion in 2023. The US is expected to grow 5.1% to $325.3 billion. The growth projection for the UK is 4.8% to $49.4 billion. Australia, on the other hand, will grow at a slower pace than India and to a lower figure. It is expected to see a 0.2% growth to $14 billion.  

Other countries with a downward revision since December include Australia (from 3.4% to 0.2%), Canada (from 8.0% to 5.0%), France (6.3% to 4.2%), Indonesia (from 9.7% to 6.7%) and Hungary (from 8.0% to 1.0%). 

Those that have seen an upward revision include China (7.9% in 2023 up from 6.3% in December), Brazil (from 3.8% to 6.6%), Malaysia (from 5.9% to 7.4%), Hong Kong (from 5.0% to 6.3%), Middle East and North Africa (MENA) (from 4.2% to 6.2%), Nigeria (from 21.4% to 31.2%), the Philippines (from 11.5% to 17.3%) and Poland (from 0.5% to 5.5%). 

This comes even as the global forecast remains unchanged from December at 5.9%, totalling $874.5 billion. This is excluding political advertising in the US, the report said. “We should expect a return to lapping more ‘normalcy’ in terms of advertising revenue growth. Our estimate for 2023 growth remains unchanged from our December forecast—5.9% (positive in nominal terms, but negative after adjusting for inflation),” it said. 

Digital ad revenue in 2023 will account for 68.8% of total revenue at $598.5 billion dollars. There has been a marked deceleration in growth from the 32.0% recorded in 2021, with 2022 coming in at 9.2% and 8.4% expected in 2023 (in line with our December 2022 predictions).

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