RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das to announce MPC meeting outcome today; another pause in repo rate likely

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will today announce its bi-monthly monetary policy statement which will be closely monitored by financial market participants. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will convey the monetary policy committee (MPC) announcements during his press conference scheduled on Friday.

The three-day bi-monthly MPC meeting of the RBI started on Wednesday, October 4 and its outcome is due on Friday. The central bank is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent and maintain a hawkish pause.

In its past three meetings, also held in April, June and August, RBI kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent. The repo rate is the rate at which RBI lends to the other banks.

In its last meeting, the central bank had increased its CPI (consumer price index) inflation forecast for FY24 to 5.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent projected in June meeting. Moreover, Das in the Monetary Policy Committee meeting announcements last time stated that GDP growth for 2023-24 is projected at 6.5 per cent.

A "substantial increase" in headline inflation would occur in the near term, Shaktikanta Das had said as part of his remarks after the policy meeting.

He reiterated what he said in the June meeting: "Bringing headline inflation within the tolerance band is not enough; we need to remain firmly focused on aligning inflation to the target of 4.0 per cent."

The headline inflation is expected to cool down in September when compared with August, but it would remain above the RBI's comfort zone, said Parijat Agrawal, head-fixed income, Union Asset Management Company.

"The recent spike in crude oil prices and global bond yields shall keep the MPC vigilant on inflation-growth dynamics. The committee is expected to maintain a status quo on rates and stance at the upcoming October meeting," he added, as per Reuters.

India's retail inflation eased to 6.83 per cent in August from 7.44 per cent in July but remained above the RBI's target band for a second consecutive month.

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