RIL shares at Rs 3,500? Reliance Industries sees price target revisions post Q4 results

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) reported largely inline March quarter results, with a beat on Ebitda. Among segments, Retail Ebitda was a miss on lower revenue, but it was offset by better O2C on higher utilisation and improved refining. Jio and Upstream numbers were inline, said analysts who increased FY25 and FY26 earnings estimates and, thus, target prices on RIL by up to 10 per cent post quarterly earnings.

"Capex run-rate fell sharply in Q4, though we believe Rs 1.2 lakh per annum would hold going ahead from new energy & petchem. We are positive on Jio tariff hikes, given the competitive landscape, while Oil & Gas and Retail should remain steady. We raise FY25-26E earnings by 2-5 per cent each and SOTP based target price by 8 per cent to Rs 3,200/share on the back of higher profitability in Jio (due to ARPUs) and roll-over to Mar-26E. RIL is well-placed with steady earnings and positive FCFF; new energy should also commence," said Emkay Global.

Kotak said while refining margins have been weak recently, it expects them to recover going ahead.  It sees a slower recovery in petchem. "We believe E&P earnings have peaked. Although 4Q was weak for retail, with strong area additions, we expect growth to pick up. Tariff hikes remain a key catalyst for R-Jio. Maintain ADD with a revised fair value of Rs 3,200," it said.

Antique Stock Broking said it sees improvement in the petrochemical cycle in FY26. It sees a continued growth in telecom subscriber base along with sharp improvement in ARPU on account of tariff hikes, and growth in retail to be key earnings growth drivers for RIL.

"A likely commissioning of new energy in FY25 would set the base for the next round of capex. We maintain BUY with a revised SoTP target of Rs 3,227 (earlier Rs 3,005) by tweaking our telecom multiple and a slight increase in O2C estimates," it said.

UBS finds the stock Rs 3,420-worthy. Jefferies suggested a target of Rs 3,380. BofA Securties' target on the stock stands at Rs 3,250. Bernstein and Morgan Stanley sees the stock at Rs 3,160 and Rs 3,046, respectively.

Motilal Oswal ascribed an equity valuation of Rs 810 per share to RJio and Rs 1,593 per share to Reliance Retail and Rs 37 per share towards the new energy business. It suggested a 'BUY' on RIL with a target price of Rs 3,245.

"RIL’s New Energy rollout shall unleash its next leg of growth besides aiding conventional business. We are raising FY26E Ebitda by 8 per cent (strong outlook), lifting our target by 10 per cent to Rs 3,500," Nuvama said.