Tata Motors Q3 earnings: Profit likely to fall, JLR's performance key factor 

Tata Motors Ltd will announce its earnings for the quarter ended December 2024 on January 29.  Deven Choksey Research expects consolidated revenue to rise 8.0% YoY, driven by JLR ex. Chery sales volume growth and an increase in average realization. The brokerage sees the EBITDA margin to fall 52 bps YoY, led by negative operating leverage and an unfavorable product mix. However, on a sequential basis, the margin is to rise 178 bps due to positive operating leverage. 

The brokerage expects net profit to fall 4.5% YoY on the back of a higher base effect.

Another brokerage Motilal Oswal said JLR volumes are expected to remain flat YoY. However, it expects  EBITDA margin to remain under pressure and contract 270bp YoY due to rising discounts. The brokerage pared its FY26E EPS by 5.5% to factor in continued margin pressure, particularly for JLR business. 

It expects Tata Motors to report a profit of Rs 6,550 crore in Q3 against a net profit of Rs 7030 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous fiscal. 

YES Securities expects net profit in Q3 at Rs 7,791.7 crore, rising 5.9% year on year (YoY) and 119% quarter on quarter. 

The brokerage expects consolidated revenue to climb 11.1% YoY (+21.1% QoQ) at Rs 1,22,840 crore. Consolidated EBITDA margins are expected to expand 190 bps YoY (+ 530 bps QoQ) at 15.8%.  Growth in adjusted PAT will be led by expected sharp improvement in JLR profitability QoQ, said YES Securities.
EBITDA is likely to rise 195% YoY and 431% quarter on quarter to Rs 19,424.5 crore.  

In the second quarter of this fiscal, Tata Motors reported a 11% year-on-year fall in net profit at Rs 3,343 crore for the September quarter against Rs 3,764 crore in the year-ago quarter.

Revenue came at Rs 1.01 lakh crore at the end of the second quarter against Rs 1.05 lakh crore in the thid quarter of the previous fiscal.