Stock market today: Gift Nifty down 4 pts; levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open little changed, on a flat note, on Wednesday ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy announcement later today, with investors anticipating a rate pause and dovish signals to offset rising external risks, particularly the proposed US tariffs.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 4.30 points, or 0.02 per cent, down at 24,703.50, hinting at a flat start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian shares slipped along with Wall Street on Wednesday, after weak US data hinted the damaging tariffs on economic activity and earnings. Nikkei was up half a per cent, while KOPSI and Hang Seng were down.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head Of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services expects the market to remain range-bound, with focus on RBI’s monetary policy decision (due on Wednesday), where a status quo is anticipated on the rates. "Stock/sector specific movements would continue on the back of ongoing Q1 earnings announcements," he said.

US stocks ended lower on Tuesday as investors weighed the impact of tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 61.90 points, or 0.14 per cent, to 44,111.74, the S&P 500 fell 30.75 points, or 0.49 per cent, to 6,299.19 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 137.03 points, or 0.65 per cent, to 20,916.55.

In commodity markets, oil prices edged up after four straight sessions of declines. US crude rose 0.2 per cent to $65.3 per barrel, while Brent was at a one-month low of $67.78 per barrel, up 0.1 per cent. Spot gold prices were flat at $3,381 an ounce.

The dollar index was flat at 98.821 and was up 0.1 per cent this week after Friday's 1.4 per cent fall. Two-year Treasury yields rose 1 basis point to 3.7284 per cent, having risen 3.5 bps overnight, while benchmark 10-year yields ticked up 2 bps to 4.2198 per cent, after holding steady overnight.

Lingering uncertainty over the tariff situation, following recent statements from the US President, along with a lack of major positive surprises from the earnings season, has been weighing on market sentiment. All eyes are now on the outcome of the upcoming MPC meeting, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 22.48 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,840.39 crore on a net-net basis.

The RBI is widely expected to hold rates steady at its policy decision scheduled at 10:00 am today, following its surprise 50-basis-point cut in June, which was accompanied by a shift to a 'neutral' stance. However, some experts see a 25 basis cut as a surprise for the economy.

With inflation levels at a multi-year low and India’s economy showing steady growth, the upcoming MPC meeting is a good opportunity for the RBI to consider reducing the repo rate by 25 basis points. This would build on the earlier rate cuts made in recent meetings, said Deepak Aggarwal, Co-founder, Co-CEO, and CFO of Moneyboxx Finance.


Nifty & Sensex outlook
Nifty managed to close above its 100 DEMA, which is currently placed at 24595. This pattern signifies a consolidation phase, and a decisive breakout on either side of this range would confirm a further directional move, said Nandish Shah - Deputy Vice President, HDFC Securities. "The recent swing low of 24,535 is expected to serve as immediate support. On the upside, 24,785 and 24,950 are two key hurdles for Nifty," he said.

For day traders, the levels of 24,700/81,000 will act as important resistance zones. Above these levels, a pullback could continue up to 24,850-24,900 / 81,500-81,600, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the downside, 24,550-24,500 / 80,500-80,300 will serve as key support zones. Below these levels, the market could slip further to 24,350-24,300 / 80,000-79,700. Given the current market texture of non-directional movement, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for day traders," he said.


Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank trades below its 20-day and 50-day EMAs, while the ADX has just started to rise a little, reflecting the ongoing weakness. The daily RSI at 36 reflects the ongoing lack of momentum, said SBI Securities. The future cues will depend in which direction the price breaks out from the narrow range pattern, it added with support at 54,850–54,900 and resistance at 55,950–56,000.

Bank Nifty remains relatively weak and continues to underperform the Nifty. It is still trading below its recent range breakout zone, indicating lack of momentum, said Mandar Bhojane, Senior Technical & Derivative Analyst Research at Choice Equity Broking.

"If the index remains below 55,115, it may drift further toward 54,900, where the 100 EMA is placed. On the other hand, 56,000 will act as a crucial resistance level—a decisive close above this could spark fresh buying interest," he said.