Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 7 pts; key levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian benchmark indices are likely to open on a muted note on Friday amid mixed global cues across the globe. Traders are keenly awaiting the developments around the trade deals between India and the US and earnings season to kick-off next week. US stocks shall observe an holiday on the account of Independence Day today

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 6.90 points, or 0.03 per cent, higher at 25,515.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Friday. Asian stocks fell mostly in early trade. Nikkei was marginally up, while KOSPI and Hang Seng cracked 1-1.5 per cent each.

Markets are expected to remain in consolidation mode, with participants likely to adopt a wait-and-watch approach amid ongoing trade negotiations and key US economic data releases, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Investors will also keep an eye on Q1 business updates, which could drive stock-specific action," he said.

Wall Street rallied on Thursday to record closing highs. The S&P 500 gained 51.94 points, or 0.83 per cent, to 6,279.36 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 207.97 points, or 1.02 per cent, to 20,601.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 344.11 points, or 0.77 per cent, to 44,828.53.

A stronger-than-expected jobs report 147,000 jobs added and unemployment dipping to 4.1%, helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs, said Viram Shah, Founder & CEO at Vested Finance. With ongoing tariff negotiations clouding the outlook, the rally feels less like a vote of confidence and more like a temporary reprieve, he said.

The dollar held gains on Friday after President Donald Trump got his signature tax cut bill across the final hurdle and pressure mounted on countries to secure trade deals with the United States. The dollar index stood little changed at 97.056, which tracks the greenback against major peers, and had its worst first half since 1973.

In commodities, oil prices were little changed on Friday. Brent crude futures rose 0.01 per cent, to $68.81 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude firmed 0.04 per cent to $67.03. Gold edged up on Friday as US President Donald Trump's tax-cut and spending bill passed in Congress, raising fiscal concerns. Spot gold rose 0.1 per cent to $3,329.67 per ounce.

Individual stocks continue to offer ample opportunities, supported by rotational buying across sectors and noticeable resilience in the broader market, Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should align their positions accordingly, with a strong focus on stock selection," he said.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 1,481.19 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,333.06 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty & Sensex outlook

For day traders, 25,500/83,500 are crucial levels to watch. As long as the market trades below these levels, the weak sentiment is likely to continue, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the downside, the market can slip towards 25,300-25,200/83,000-82,700, if it breaks the level of 25,370. On the upside, above 25,500/83,500, we can see an intraday bounce towards 25,600/83,800. A successful breakout of the 25,600/83,800 resistance zone can push the market towards 25,670/84,000," he said.

Nifty seems to be in a correction phase for the last four trading sessions. Previous swing highs of 25,317 and 25,222 could act as support in this correction phase of Nifty, said Nandish Shah, Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities. "On the higher side, a level of 25,600 could offer immediate resistance to the index," he added.

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank is now testing the short-term support near 56,600. The 20-day SMA, placed around 56,489, acts as a crucial support zone. RSI has dropped to 56.70, reflecting fading bullish momentum. A breakdown below 56,500 may trigger further downside toward 56,000, while a bounce from the current level can lead to a recovery back toward 57,300, said Reliance Securities.

Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities said that Nifty Bank faced selling pressure after approaching the upper zone of its rising wedge pattern.  The index has slipped below its 9-day EMA, signalling short-term weakness, although it continues to hold firmly above the 20-day EMA and other key moving averages, he said.