BJP seat wins: Phalodi Satta Bazar prediction, share market on Modi govt prospects 

With the seventh and last phase of ongoing six-week elections due on June 1, stock investors are keenly focusing at the number of seats that the incumbent BJP may win this time against its stated target of '400 paar'. If one goes by Phalodi Satta Bazar after the first six phases, BJP could grab nearly 290 out of 543 seats, securing majority of its own, ZEE News reported. This is against 300 seats that Phalodi Satta Bazar suggested a couple of days ago. Business Today could not independently verify the report.

A survey of half a dozen brokerages by Business Today Markets Online suggested that a clear majority for BJP is likely but any substantial gain over 303 seats it won in 2019 elections is unlikely. In total, the stock market might be factoring in 300-320 seats for NDA, analysts said. This would still fall short of 370-410 seats that various opinion polls suggested for the NDA. The election results will be out on June 4.

The market is pricing in about 300 seats for the NDA, said Amnish Aggarwal, Head - Institutional Research at Prabhudas Lilladher.  "Policy continuity will be a big confidence boost for investors. Regardless, there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to be deployed as soon as the election uncertainties come to an end," he said.

Samco Securities said it expects the BJP-led NDA to win around 300-320 seats. It seems that majority of the market participants too are going with this number, it said.

Narendra Solanki of Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers said the incumbent government seems to be coming back with a comfortable majority. "I believe markets have also factored in a majority for the Modi government. However the number of seats is still not priced. In case, it is near 400, we could see some upside," Solanki said.

Arpit Jain, Joint MD at Arihant Capital said the BJP and NDA are likely to replicate their 2019 performance. The market is gradually pricing in a BJP or NDA victory, he said.