Adani Green Energy shares delivered negative returns in two years; can they recover? 

Shares of Adani Green Energy Ltd have clocked negative returns for investors in two years. The Adani Green Energy stock is down 16% in two years against a 52.11% gain in the benchmark BSE 200 index during the period. On the other hand, the Adani Group stock has gained 93.40% in a year and risen 22% in 2024. The stock was trading on a flat note at Rs 1,948.50 in the current trading session. 

Market cap of Adani Green Energy stood at Rs 3.08 lakh crore. Total 0.52 lakh shares changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 9.98 crore.     

The Adani Green Energy stock opened marginally lower at Rs 1928.60 on BSE today. 

The large cap stock hit a 52-week high of Rs 2173.65 on June 3, 2024 and a 52-week low of Rs 816 on October 26, 2023.      

It has a high beta of 1.9, indicating very high volatility in the last one year. 

The Adani Group’s stock is trading neither in the oversold nor in the overbought zone, signals the relative strength index (RSI) of Adani Green Energy which stands at 58.6. Adani Green shares are trading higher than the 50 day, 100 day, 150 day, 200 day and lower than the 5 day, 10 day, 20 day, 30 day moving averages. 

Foreign brokerage Investec has initiated coverage on Adani Green Energy with a 'Buy' rating. It sees a 30% upside in the stock. 

Adani Green Energy is set to clock 5 times growth in its installed capacity to 50GW-plus by FY30, replicating its historical growth rate of 5 times to 11GW over FY19-24. The growth would be led by 30GW/ 11GW installation in Rajasthan and Gujarat's Khavda, where Adani Green Energy has access to large resource rich land bank along with evacuation facilities, Investec said.

The brokerage values Adani Green at 15 times FY30 consolidated EBITDA, adjusting for the FY29 net debt. It has  assigned a target price of Rs 2,515. 

Another brokerage Emkay Global has maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock. It assigned a price target of Rs 2,550 per share.

Recently, Adani Green Energy (AGEL) announced securing (Letter of Intent issued) supply of 5 GW of solar power to MSEDCL at the price of Rs 2.70/kWh under the competitive bidding process initiated by the latter. This, also includes ~1.5 GW of net thermal power supply won by group company Adani Power (APL), which made the combined bid. 

“We view Rs 2.7/kWh flat rate for the PPA term of 25 years positively and the same is in sync with Rs 4.5 crore/MW of solar module cost, which AGEL is guiding as part of project capex. Khavda, with 30 GW, would enjoy significant economies of scale," the domestic brokerage said.