Adani Green shares down 16% from July high; is it time to buy this Adani stock? Targets

Even as Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) shares have fallen 15 per cent from their July high, analysts are bullish on the stock with five out of six recommendations in August so far, recommending 'Buy' or 'Accumulate' on the scrip. Axis Capital is fresh to join the bandwagon, suggesting a 12-month target of Rs 1,704 on August 7. Elara Securities had on August 6 suggested 'Accumulate' on the stock with a target of Rs 1,502. Macquarie suggested a target of Rs 1800 on the stock on August 3, the highest on the Street. On the same day, an underperform came from Bernstein with a target of Rs 1,000 on the stock, the lowest on the Street.

In the case of Axis Capital, it initiated coverage on the stock with a 'Buy' rating, saying India's largest renewable energy player with 20.1GW of operational capacity is poised for 2.5 times growth in renewable energy capacity and significant storage additions by FY30. This, it said, would drive run-rate Ebitda to Rs 46,000 crore from Rs 16,100 crore in FY26, against the company's guidance of Rs 55,000-60,000 crore.

Adani Green is down  15 per cent from its 52-week high of Rs 1,631.35. Despite this, the stock is up 33.55 per cent year-to-date against a 6 per cent drop in the BSE Sensex.

"Transmission delays remain a key risk, and we factor a one-year delay in meeting the target. We estimate capex requirement of Rs 2.1 lakh crore and believe equity would be fully met through internal accruals with headroom for stronger growth. Net debt to Ebitda would improve to 4.7 times by FY32," Axis Capital said.

It expects AGEL to generate an operating cash flow OCF of Rs 20,000 crore, enabling over 12GW per annum additions. "Our SOP based Sep-27 TP is Rs1,704/share (implying 13.5x FY31 run
rate EV/EBITDA). Initiate with BUY," the brokerage said.

Emkay Global said AGEL is focused on building one of the world’s largest renewable and storage platforms, supported by a de-risked pipeline, with fully secured land and improving connectivity, strong O&M capabilities, and capital management. This included a de-risked Ebitda profile with zero-to-minimal market-linked volatility, it said.

"The contractual framework should further support the efficient deployment of capital at the lowest cost of capital, thereby enhancing equity returns. The improving credit profile should provide further headroom to fund the planned capex while maintaining balance-sheet flexibility. Lower interest cost can materially benefit earnings for the company," it said while suggesting a target of Rs 1,650 on the stock.