Bajaj Finance shares at Rs 815 or Rs 1,300? CLSA, JPMorgan, Macquarie - highest and lowest targets

At least two dozen brokerages have updated their views on Bajaj Finance Ltd following the NBFC's June quarter results. Most, including Jefferies, Citi and HSBC, maintained positive ratings on the stock, while Macquarie, UBS and Ambit Capital remained cautious with 'Sell' or 'Underperform' recommendations. The Bloomberg consensus target price stands at Rs 1,144.59, implying an 8.6 per cent upside over the next 12 months. CLSA , Citi and MOFSL have the highest target price on the stock at Rs 1,300, while Ambit Capital's Rs 815 target is the lowest among brokerages.

Bajaj Finance's Q1 net profit beat Bloomberg consensus estimates by 7 per cent. Asset quality remained strong but the management said it would watch for another quarter before any guidance revision. Analysts said cost of funds movement was well-controlled and the management expects it to be rangebound with a slight upward bias.

Among brokerages with positive recommendations such as 'Buy', 'Accumulate' or 'Overweight', JPMorgan's target stood at Rs 1,295, followed by BNP Paribas' target at Rs 1,290, Jefferies' at Rs 1,280 and HSBC's at Rs 1,270. Six brokerages namely Investec, ICICI Securities, IIFL, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, JM Financial and Phillip Capital have set a target price of Rs 1,250 for the stock. Macquarie has a target of Rs 850 on Bajaj Finance, UBS at Rs 910, Haitong Interntional at Rs 965 and Emkay Global at Rs 1,000.

Despite increasing scale, with AUM of Rs 5.5 lakh crore, Bajaj Finance is poised to deliver healthy loan growth of 23 per cent and return on equity (RoE) of 20-21per centon the back of a robust customer acquisition and cross-sell engine, continual optimization of processes through various initiatives and consistent focus on asset quality, HDFC Securities said.

"However, current valuation at 4.1 times March 2028 book value is capping the upside. We maintain BUY with an unchanged target of Rs 1,100," the brokerage said.

Nomura said it continued to like Bajaj Finance among NBFCs and maintain our Buy rating with target price of Rs 1,140.

"If we lower BAF’s FY27F credit cost by 10bp vs our current estimates it leads to about 2-3 per cent lift in net profit estimates of FY27F. The management did highlight that better risk often does lead to a better growth outlook. However, it has not made any changes to FY27E guidance for now," the foreign brokerage said.
   
Nuvama said Bajaj Finance's diversified portfolio and proactive risk management position it well to navigate emerging macro and asset-quality risks while delivering healthy RoA and RoE around 4.1 per cent and 20–21 per cent over FY27–29E.

"Post Rajeev’s reinstatement as MD till March 2028, top management reset has been pushed back and hence provides comfort in the near term, it said while suggesting a target of Rs 1,175 for the stock.

Bajaj Finance is firing on all cylinders, said MOFSL which upgraded the stock to 'Buy' citing a new earnings cycle. It feels Bajaj Finance has moved beyond the earnings normalisation phase and is entering a period of structurally higher earnings growth.

"Our investment thesis is predicated on three structural pillars, 1) The credit cycle has turned which will enable lower credit costs and higher earnings, 2) multiple growth engines (core lending, digital ecosystem, gold loans, new businesses for BAF) are firing simultaneously and 3) duration and magnitude of this new earnings call, leaves room for both earnings upgrades and valuation support," it said. The brokerage suggested a target of Rs 1,300 on the stock.