Buy Hind Copper shares? Target as global peers trade at 10-year valuation multiple peaks

Even as Hindustan Copper Ltd shares are up 20 per cent since July 28, domestic brokerage Anand Rathi maintained its 'Buy' rating on the stock with a target price of Rs 715. The brokerage said copper fundamentals remained among the strongest in the non-ferrous metals space, with several global copper miners trading at or near their 10-year multiple peaks.

Anand Rathi said First Quantum Minerals, Ivanhoe and Southern Copper stand out among global majors with sector-leading forward EV/Ebitda multiples of 14.6 times, 13 times and 14.4 times, respectively. It said its positive view on Hindustan Copper is supported by tighter global copper inventories, elevated prices, strong operational visibility, the company’s best-ever first-quarter performance and a multi-decade production runway.

Chile, Congo and Peru contribute 50 per cent of global copper production. Anand Rathi said global inventories at the LME and SHFE have tightened further because of a surge in shipments to the US ahead of a tariff decision. The domestic brokerage said the recent rise in prices has been driven more by trade dislocations and a demand tug-of-war between the US and China.

Since mid-May-26, global copper traders have been withdrawing inventories from LME warehouses in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, leading to a drawdown of about 47 per cent and supporting global prices.

Anand Rathi noted that copper stocks outside the US have also been falling consistently, with current inventory at about 52 per cent, the lowest since January 2026.

Anand Rathi said that while mine disruptions were limited in H1CY26, several global miners have cut their 2026 guidance. It said this has been worsened by the Democratic Republic of Congo's blanket export ban on raw copper concentrates, Indonesia’s Gresik smelter outage and Chile repeatedly trimming its copper output forecast, all of which are expected to support global prices and keep them elevated.

Best-ever June quarter 
The brokerage described the June quarter as Hindustan Copper’s best-ever first quarter. Revenue rose 81.4 per cent year-on-year to Rs 937 crore, ahead of its estimate of Rs 855 crore, while ore production stood at 0.968 million tonnes. Ebitda jumped 139.4 per cent YoY to Rs 510 crore and was higher than its estimate, with Ebitda margin at 54.2 per cent. It said the improvement was driven by a 39.5 per cent YoY rise in blended quarterly copper prices, a 10.6 per cent YoY depreciation in the rupee, lower TC/RC, and better volume and grade.

On the company’s mine life, Anand Rathi said renewed leases and the potential revival of the Pathargora block in Jharkhand and the Dikchu block in Sikkim give Hindustan Copper an adequate production runway beyond 12.2 million tonnes. It contrasted this with the global copper industry, where four of the 15 largest copper mines have no operating plan beyond CY40. It also said grade depletion, increasingly complex underground operations and power constraints are affecting global miners. Hindustan Copper’s cash cost, at about $2.8 per pound, is comparable with China Gold International at $2.74 per pound, Sociedad Minera El Brocal at $2.92 per pound, Atalaya at $2.4 per pound, Ivanhoe at $2.2 per pound and Glencore at $2.77 per pound.