Delhi election results, AAP, BJP seat wins: What JM says ahead of February 8

JM Financial in a strategy note on Thursday said exit polls by 12 polling agencies suggest an anti-incumbency against the ruling AAP in Delhi assembly elections. The domestic brokerage believes BJP may gain clear majority of 38 seats out of 70 seat assembly.

"It is pertinent to note that exit poll results have accurately predicted the actual results in the previous assembly election in 2020, in favour of AAP," it said.

Elections in Delhi were held on February 5. Benchmark indices settled marginally lower on Wednesday and were trading in the red on Thursday as well. At 12.45 pm, the BSE Sensex stood at 77,998.67, down 272.61 points or 0.35 per cent. Nifty fell 86.15 points or 0.36 per cent to 23,610.15. 

"It appeared that traders preferred to book some of their long positions, given the upcoming domestic events, including the MPC outcome and Delhi state election results. Additionally, global factors such as the ongoing trade war continue to add an element of uncertainty," Sameet Chavan of Angel One earlier today.

In the run up to the  election, the Arvind Kejriwal-led AAP announced various schemes such as ‘Mahila Samman Yojana’  providing monthly allowance of Rs 2,100 to women and Rs 18,000 to priests. The BJP’s campaigned mainly highlighted corruption by the AAP government, however they  promised to continue the on-going schemes (including free electricity upto 200 units) of the AAP government along with matching the monthly allowance to women, JM Financial noted.

The  Congress, on the other hand, had promised to provide a universal health insurance worth Rs 25 lakh and a higher monthly allowance of Rs 2,500 to women. 

"Poll promises in the run up to the election revolved around cash transfer schemes by AAP which was countered by corruption allegation by the BJP while matching the cash transfer schemes of the AAP. Congress restricted to just one eat as per the exit polls," JM Financial said.

Voter turnout fell from 62.59 per cent in 2020 elections to 60.44 per cent in 2025.

Meanwhile, on the ongoing MPC policy review, Amar Ambani, Executive Director at YES Securities said he does not anticipate the RBI cutting rates. While inflation is showing signs of easing and domestic growth requires support, global conditions remain unfavourable for a rate cut at this stage, he said.

"With China imposing retaliatory tariffs on the US, the RBI is likely to adopt a wait-and-watch approach regarding further developments in the trade war. Shipping costs are already elevated, and an immediate rate cut could widen the interest rate differential between the US and India, exerting additional pressure on the rupee, which has already seen significant depreciation. The inflationary impact of this depreciation is yet to fully materialize. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates before April/May 2025," he said.