Dixon Tech shares: Why Nuvama raised target price, cut FY27 earnings estimate

Nuvama Institutional Equities has raised its target price for Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd after upgrading its FY28 earnings per share (EPS) estimate for Dixon Tech by 9 per cent on a faster scale-up in components. The domestic brokerage, however, cut its FY27 earnings estimate by 7 per cent, citing a likely delay in the consolidation of the Vivo joint venture.

Nuvama recently interacted with management of Dixon Technologies. It noted that smartphone market remained weak in the September quarter, down around 15-20 per cent YoY, even as Dixon Tech is likely to gain market share. The company reiterated its FY27 guidance of 3.3 crore units.

Dixon, as per Nuvama, said telecom and IT hardware continued to gather further traction with FY27 revenue anticipated at Rs 6,500–7,000 crore (40 per cent YoY) and above Rs 6,000 crore (275 per cent YoY), respectively. Dixon-Vivo JV commercial likely in Q3FY27 against October 2026 earlier, Nuvama said.

"We are cutting FY27E EPS by 7 per cent on a likely delay in Vivo JV consolidation while raising FY28E EPS by 9 per cent on faster scale-up in components. Maintain ‘Hold’ with a September 2027 target of Rs 14,800 (from Rs 13,700) based on 50 times September 2028 EPS. Dixon trades at 54 times FY28E EPS," Nuvama said.

After 11-12 per cent YoY contraction in Q1FY27, the domestic smartphone market may clock another 15-20 per cent  YoY decrease in Q2, as higher memory chip prices and consequent increase in smartphone prices hurt demand in the mid to low-end smartphone segment, Nuvama said.

"Dixon’s Q2FY27 smartphone volumes are projected at 94-95 lakh units, indicating 10–12 per cent fall YoY, hence implying market share gain. Smartphone realisations are likely to rise 10-15 per cent QoQ with stable margins (INR per unit), hence yielding a modest Ebitda growth, in our estimate," Nuvama said.

Dixon is aiming at 1.5-2 crore export units, total smartphone volumes of 7-7.5 crore units annually and mobile phone revenue of Rs 1.05-1.1 lakh crore with margins likely to improve through backward integration and MPMS incentives.