DMart Q4 results preview: Margins likely to contract; check estimates & target price

Radhakishan Damani-promoted Avenue Supermarts is set to announce its results for the quarter and financial year ended on March 31, 2025 on Saturday, May 03, 2025. The operator of supermarket chain DMart is likely to report a mixed set of numbers for January-March 2025 quarter.

DMart is likely to report a double digit growth in revenues, Ebitda and net profit on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, but performance on the quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) basis is muted on these parameters. Some analysts are forecasting up to 20 per cent fall in Ebitda and profit on a sequential basis on the back of margin contraction. Besides this, store count will also be keenly eyed.

Kotak Institutional Equities is penciling Avenue Supermarts net sales at Rs 14,882.6 crore, up 16.9 per cent YoY but 6.8 per cent QoQ. Ebitda is seen at Rs 1,047.5 crore, up 11 per cent YoY but down 13.9 per cent QoQ, with Ebitda margins contracting to 7 per cent. Net profit is seen at Rs 643.9 crore, up 12.7 per cent YoY but down 12.3 per cent QoQ.

"We model consolidated revenue growth driven by addition of 28 stores and single-digit SSSG. We expect consolidated GM of 14.4 per cent and Ebitda margin of 7 per cent. On a QoQ basis, we expect gross margin to contract by 30 bps and EBITDA margin to contract by 60 bps given the unfavorable seasonality," said Kotak. It has a 'sell' tag on the stock with a target price of Rs 3,450.

Ahead of its Q4 results, shares of Avenue Supermarts fell more than 3 per cent and settled at Rs 4,060.50 on Friday, commanding a total market capitalization of less than Rs 2.65 lakh crore. The stock has crashed about 26 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 5,484, hit in September 2024.

Nuvama Institutional Equities is penciling a revenue of Rs 14,462.4 crore, up 17 per cent YoY but down 7 per cent QoQ. Ebitda is seen at Rs 1,018 crore, up 8 per cent YoY but down 18 per cent QoQ. Net profit is seen at Rs 619.8 crore, up 3 per cent YoY but down 21 per cent QoQ.

Avenue Supermarts in Q4FY25, reported growth in standalone revenues with an addition of 28 stores, said Nuvama. "We expect DMart to report a gross margin of 13.5 per cent with a negative bias assuming stable GM&A mix. This leads to an EBITDA margin estimate of 7 per cent," it added.

JM Financial is expect Avenue Supermarts to clock a revenue of Rs 14,462.4 crore, up 16.7 per cent YoY but down 7.1 per cent QoQ. It is expecting Ebitda to come in at Rs 1,013.6 crore, up 7.8 per cent YoY but down 17.9 per cent QoQ. Net profit is seen at Rs 630 crore, up 4.3 per cent YoY but down 19.7 per cent QoQ.