HDFC Bank shares stuck in bear grip, price targets indicate recovery?

HDFC Bank share price: Shareholders of India's largest private sector lender HDFC Bank are facing losses in the short to medium term. HDFC Bank shares have fallen up to 21% in a year, with short-term losses of 25% in six months and 17% in three months. HDFC Bank stock is trading near its 52-week low of Rs 726.75 reached on April 2, 2026. The trend has been extremely bearish in the banking stock, which has been trading below the 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day, 100 day, 150 day and 200 day simple moving averages.

In fact, the banking stock has slipped 25% from its record high of Rs 1020.35 reached on October 23, 2025. It has a beta of 1.19, indicating high volatility in a year.

The stock is the top loser among the 12 stocks on Bank Nifty in a year.

The sharp correction in the banking stock was largely driven by the sudden resignation of Chairman Atanu Chakraborty on March 18, which triggered concerns over corporate governance and management stability. Investor sentiment weakened sharply after the announcement, leading to a steep 13.81% fall in the stock price ahead of the company’s Q4 earnings.

Although the bank later reported a healthy set of quarterly results, the numbers failed to lift market sentiment amid a broader selloff in equities. Escalating tensions in West Asia and a spike in crude oil prices weighed heavily on the overall market, with banking stocks across India coming under pressure due to rising macroeconomic concerns.

Brokerage Systematix has a price target of Rs 950 on the banking stock.

Brokerage Nirmal Bang has a target price of Rs 1037, an upside of over 30% from the current market price.

Nirmal Bang said the bank has made significant long-term investments to position itself as a technology-first institution, with technology investments exceeding $1 bn.

"HDFC Bank merits a premium valuation versus large private sector peers, supported by its superior asset quality, strong liability franchise, and granular retail deposit base. Despite global uncertainties, the bank has delivered stable performance, with NIM at 3.38%, ROE of 14%, and ROA of 1.9%," said Nirmal Bang.

Brokerage Nuvama has pared its target price to Rs 1050 against the earlier Rs 1170, citing the sharp fall in stock and limited visibility of near-term rerating.

On the other hand, MOFSL reiterated a BUY call with a target price of Rs 1,100.

The brokerage said HDFC Bank posted an in-line quarter, characterised by healthy business growth, net interest margin (NIM) expansion and robust asset quality. Loan growth was healthy, led by corporate and SME loans, while retail loan growth was modest. The lender maintained a contingency and floating provisions at Rs 15,700 crore and Rs 21,400 crore, respectively.

Brokerage Mirae Asset Sharekhan has assigned a target of Rs 1025 to the banking stock. But the brokerage said persisting geopolitical uncertainties could impact asset quality.

"Return ratios are expected to remain  steady with an upward bias. We value the bank at ~2.0x FY28E book value and subsidiaries at Rs 125 per share. Maintain Buy with an unchanged price target of Rs. 1025," said the brokerage.