Afcons Infrastructure shares extend decline after weak Q4 earnings; brokerages mixed, check target prices

Shares of Afcons Infrastructure Ltd continued to slip for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, falling 2.07 per cent to Rs 308.10 at last check. Select brokerages largely remained divided on the counter following weak March 2026 quarter (Q4 FY26) results.

ElaraCapital has downgraded Afcons to 'Sell' as Q4 FY26 performance weakened sharply, impacted by delayed customer payments, overseas supply-chain disruptions affecting international projects, and weak execution across key projects.

"Also, lower margin recognition on new projects and one-time provisioning significantly weighed on profitability and operational efficiency in Q4," it added.

"Although the company issued FY27 order inflow guidance of Rs 30,000 crore, it withheld revenue and margin guidance owing to persistent geopolitical uncertainty, stretched liquidity and slower project award conversions. So, we cut our earnings sharply by ~45 per cent for FY27E and by 36 per cent for FY28E to reflect these uncertainties. We downgrade AFCONS to Sell from Buy with a lower TP of Rs 282 (from Rs 443), based on 25x (unchanged) FY28E," Elara further stated.

ICICI Securities said Afcons reported a weak Q4FY26, with revenue declining 19 per cent to Rs 2,600 crore, missing its guidance by a wide margin amid ongoing geopolitical issue.

It retained 'Hold' rating but trimmed its target price to Rs 315 from Rs 340 earlier. "As of Q1 FY27-TD, with no improvement in sight, management refrained from providing any earnings guidance for the year. FY26 witnessed stress on the OI front as it reported OIs of Rs 4,100 crore vs. guidance of Rs 20,000 crore due to a delay/cancellation in L1s. However, OIs has improved meaningfully with ~Rs 13,000 crore already secured against FY27 guidance of Rs 30,000 crore. Its OB stands at Rs 32,500 crore (2.7x TTM sales vs. 2.9x YoY). Maintain HOLD," the brokerage stated.

Nuvama Institutional Equities, however, kept its 'Buy' rating with a reduced target price. "Delays in receipt of payments, muted order inflows, supply chain issues due to Iran war and one-time provisioning dented execution/profitability," it noted.

"While AIL (Afcons Infra) remains a sterling EPC player (refer to In a league of its own), payment issues and execution challenges in a volatile environment compel us to slash FY27E/28E EPS by 24 per cent/5 per cent. Retain 'BUY' with a revised TP of Rs 398 (earlier Rs 404) based on 25x Q4 FY28E EPS. At CMP, the stock trades at 27.6x FY27E EPS," Nuvama also said.