Helios Capital's Samir Arora on trade ties, GST and why investors should think long term

Samir Arora, founder of Helios Capital, shared his views on global developments, India's trade dynamics and stock market sentiment in an interaction with Business Today on Tuesday, emphasising that investors should stay focused on long-term fundamentals despite recent volatility.

On the recent summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Arora said India's aim was to show it can maintain good relations with different partners without being in a "hostage situation" with any particular country. While these moves may not directly shift the market momentum, he believes they are important for future trade negotiations with the US.

India's trade deficit with China hit $99 billion in FY25, with imports of $113 billion against exports of $14 billion. Imports from Russia stood at $63.8 billion, largely driven by crude and fertilisers. Arora said India should look at new investments rather than focus only on past trade gaps. For example, companies entering India should commit to local production or exports in return.

He also noted that India's surplus with the US is not entirely direct, as many exports like mobile phones and jewellery have significant import content from China and elsewhere.

On foreign portfolio flows, Arora said the recent outflow from Indian equities, nearly Rs 35,000 crore in August, should not be seen only as a call against India. He pointed out that some exits were by private equity investors booking profits. While foreign investors have moved money into Chinese and other Asian markets recently, Arora expects India to regain flows once sentiment improves.

Discussing GST, Arora said any tax cut would help by putting more money in the hands of the public. However, he cautioned against creating sharp distinctions within the same category, as that could dampen sentiment.

On market outlook, he said investors can reasonably expect 10 per cent annual returns over the long term, in line with global trends of equities offering 5–6 per cent more than debt. He advised retail investors not to time the market, adding that Helios Capital itself is nearly fully invested across its funds.

Arora remains positive on sectors such as financials, consumers, energy, autos and food delivery, while avoiding overvalued market intermediaries.