Hindalco Industries share price target: Buy, hold or sell?

Hindalco Industries Ltd, whose shares have surged 32 per cent in the past one year, has receibed 'Buy' rating from MOFSL, even as it believes muted near-term earnings visibility from Novelis due to Oswego fire could remain a key overhang on the overall performance. 

The domestic brokerage said Hindalco is well-positioned to capitalise on favorable industry tailwinds across both its aluminum and copper businesses. LME prices have strengthened meaningfully to $3,200 per tonne, supported by concerns over potential smelter shutdowns, delays in capacity ramp-ups and a broader upswing in commodity markets.

MOFSL, which met the Hindalco management, said the company expects domestic demand across Asia to remain robust and outpace the modest growth expectation of 2-4 per cent CAGR globally, broadly driven by renewable & electrification, infra spending, packaging and auto/EV adoption. The impact of the ongoing conflict in the West Asia is largely limited to rising energy (coal) costs, it said adding that 75 per cent of energy is fulfilled via coal linkages and the rest via e-auction. It said the rise in coal e-auction prices can increase its energy costs for Hindalco Industries.

"We remain structurally positive on Hindalco, considering favorable LME, its strategic expansion aligned with a robust domestic outlook, and a strong balance sheet, which provides steady growth visibility and capital efficiency in the long run," MOFSL said. 

The global aluminum market ended with a modest deficit in 2025, where China’s deficit showcased a structural multi-year demand, led by a surge in EV production. In India, demand is broadly driven by renewable & electrification, infra spending, packaging and auto/EV adoption. 

At Novelis, said MOFSL, the record-high Midwest premium in North America, at 70 per cent of LME, resulted in favorable scrap spreads and directly benefited margins as higher recycled content lowers metal input costs. Additionally, the India-EU FTA might open a new avenue for volume growth and premium realization, MOFSL noted.

"However, muted near-term earnings visibility from Novelis due to Oswego fire could remain a key overhang on the overall performance. Hindalco's Indian operation has been nearly net debt free, while its consolidated net debt-to-Ebitda ratio stood at 1.7 times as of December 2025, mainly attributed to Novelis Bay Minette expansion. We reiterate our BUY rating on Hindalco with our SoTP-based target of Rs 1,110, premised on our Sep’27 estimates," MOFSL said.