Infra stock loses multibagger tag: Fresh price targets, outlook and more    

Shares of KEC International Ltd, which delivered returns of 204% and 388% in three years and five years till December 2024, have turned negative since then losing their multibagger tag and leaving investors worried over the fate of their investments.The infra sector stock hit a record high of Rs 1,313.25 on December 4, 2024. KEC International stock has slipped 63% from its all-time high till date. 

KEC International shares fell 43% in a year and slipped 39% in two years. In fact, the erstwhile multibagger has slipped 47% from its 52 week high of Rs 947.30 reached on June 26, last year. 

Amid the ongoing correction, the infra stock slipped to a 52-week low of Rs 466.10 on May 19 this year.  

However, in the current session, KEC International stock gained 3.5% to Rs 505.70 against the previous close of Rs 488.65 on BSE. Market cap of the firm rose to Rs 13,479 crore. A total of 0.36 lakh shares of the firm changed hands amounting to a turnover of Rs 1.77 crore. 

KEC International shares have a beta of 1.2, indicating high volatility in a year.

In terms of technicals, the relative strength index (RSI) of the KEC International stock stands at 39.7, signaling it's trading neither in the overbought nor in the oversold zone.

Brokerage Elara Securities has a price target of Rs 700 and maintained its buy call on the KEC stock. 

"We slash our EPS estimates for FY27E/FY28E by 23%/10% on account of deferred execution schedules, dragged down by geopolitical tensions, delayed payments for water projects, high debt and stretched working capital. We thus pare our target price to Rs 700 from Rs 930 on 12x (earlier 16x) March FY28E P/E, as we roll forward by a quarter," said Elara. 

The brokerage expects an earnings CAGR of 50% in FY26-29E for the infra firm, with average ROE and ROCE of 20% and 16%, respectively, in FY27E-29E. 

Another brokerage MOSL expects the stock to hit the Rs 630 mark in a year.

"We maintain our estimates, and expect a CAGR of 16%/15%/19% in revenue/EBITDA/PAT over FY26-28. This will be driven by 1) order inflow growth of 21% on a strong prospect pipeline; 2) stable EBITDA margin at ~7% for FY27E/28E; and 3) stable NWC.

KECI is currently trading at 17.6x/14.3x on FY27E/28E EPS. We maintain BUY with an unchanged TP of Rs 630 based on 18x P/E Mar’28E earnings.

However, the brokerage cited key risks and concerns for its assumptions.

A slowdown in order inflows, higher commodity prices, an increase in receivables and working capital, and heightened competition are some of the key risks that could potentially affect the estimates, said MOSL. 

KEC International is a global infrastructure engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) major. It has presence in the verticals of power transmission and distribution, railways, civil, urban infrastructure, solar, oil & gas pipelines, and cables. The company is currently executing infrastructure projects in 30 plus countries and has a footprint in 110 plus countries (includes EPC, supply of towers and cables). It is the flagship company of the RPG Group.