ITC stock: FII stake falls to nine-quarter low, down 49% from record high; what's next?

ITC share price: Shares of ITC Ltd have slipped 49% from their record high hit two years ago. ITC shares clocked a high of Rs 528.50 on September 27, 2024. The stock of the FMCG and cigarette major has slipped 26% in 2026, amounting to over half the erosion from record high this year.

The correction this year comes on the back of a hike in taxes on tobacco. The government announced a significant hike in cigarette taxation effective from February 1, 2026.

Another key factor behind the crash from record high has been constant stake reduction by FIIs in the last two years.

The stake of FIIs slipped to a nine quarter low in September 2026 quarter.  In June 2024, FII stake in ITC stood at 40.47. It rose to 40.5% in the September 2024 quarter. Since then, FIIs have been paring their stake in the ITC stock. FII stake in the September 2026 quarter fell to 33.2%.

On October 28 this year, the stock fell to a 52 week low of Rs 252.80. It is trading below the Rs 300 mark (on an intra day high basis) since May 26, 2026. The stock which has given up the Rs 300 mark for over five months till date was trading on a flat note today. The FMCG stock stood at Rs 268 in the current session. Market cap of the firm stood at Rs 3.35 lakh crore.

ITC shares are neither oversold nor overbought on charts, with their RSI standing at 54.5.

The FMCG stock is trading above 10 day, 20 day, 30 day, 50 day , 100 day and 200 DMA), reflecting bullishness in the broader trend.

ITC share price targets

Axsi Securities has trimmed its price target to Rs 260 per share against the previous targte of Rs 285 per share.

"Following the recent increase in cigarette taxes and continued inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical uncertainties, higher energy costs and supply-chain disruptions, we have lowered our earnings estimates. Nevertheless, we remain positive on the company's long-term growth prospects, supported by its diversified business portfolio and strong execution capabilities," said Axis.

"We maintain our HOLD rating on the stock with a downside of 2% from the CMP," said the brokerage.

HDFC Securities assigned a price target of Rs 300 to the stock.

"We continue to see the cigarettes business as the dominant driver of the stock performance, with comfort likely to improve as cigarette EBIT/stick rebounds by Q4FY27 given that 80% of price hikes are already in place."

"While maintaining its Add call, the brokerage said it expects the stock’s valuation to remain subdued in the near term as the market digests steep price hikes and the resultant volume and earnings drag. "A rerating is likely only once consumers absorb the price shock and the underlying trends stabilize.  At current level, we believe the stock already reflects key risks, including a  possible rise in illicit volumes. We remain vigilant and maintain ADD," said HDFC Securities.

Emkay Global has trimmed its price target by 3% to Rs 300. Maintaining its Add call to the stock, the brokerage said, "We lower FY27-29E earnings slightly, mainly on lower margin assumption in the cigarette business and expect sales/earnings CAGR of ~7/3% over FY26-29E. While the stock seems attractive at current valuation, we think the weak cigarette volume growth recovery, uncertainty regarding the extent and timing of future price hikes, and upcoming union budget will remain a stock overhang."