Jio IPO: Valuation looks reasonable against Airtel; analysts say subscribe, flag 5 risks

At least two brokerages have recommended subscribing to the IPO of Jio Platforms Ltd, which opens for public bidding on October 21, citing reasonable valuations. Jio has 53.33 crore customers, a 50 per cent share of the wireless broadband market and a 42.6 per cent share of the fixed broadband market. It accounts for 60 per cent of India’s wireless data traffic and has the largest 5G customer base outside China, analysts said.

"At the price band, JPL is valued at 31.7-33.3 times FY26 EPS. On EV/Ebitda, it is valued at 15.0-15.6 times FY26 Ebitda against its 16.2 per cent Ebitda CAGR. Given its market leadership, pricing power, growth levers and execution record, we recommend subscribe," said Emkay Global.

Emkay noted that Jio reached 10 crore customers within 180 days of launch and seized 42.67 per cent of India’s broadband customer share within one year, highlighting Jio's execution prowess.

"It was the first operator in India to cross the 1 crore fiber broadband customer mark and completed a nationwide SA 5G roll-out in about a year—the fastest 5G roll-out globally. With the 5G build complete, capex fell from 48.8 per cent to 23.3 per cent of revenue over FY24-26, operating cash flow rose to Rs 77,560 crore, Ebitda less cash capex rose from 1.5 per cent of Ebitda in FY24 to 53.4 per cent in FY26," Emkay said.

Peer comparison 
Swastika Investmart in a note said Jio's IPO is priced  at 33.3 times earnings per share, which is 18 per cent below Bharti Airtel’s 40.71 times. Jio's 12 times EV/Ebitda multiple is seen reasonable relative to Jio's higher market share, double-digit Ebitda growth rate, and dominant home broadband expansion.

"However Jio commands a 15–17 per cent multiple premium over Bharti Airtel’s India business, Airtel offers superior Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) and higher current ARPU. Focus on structural industry health, pointing out that tariff discipline among Indian telcos (Jio, Airtel, Vi) has created an ideal market structure for ongoing ARPU hikes.

Jio IPO: Subscribe or avoid?

Swastika Investmart said 'Subscribe' to the issue as Jio is core structural compounder for India’s digital economy, backed by cash generation, declining leverage, and home broadband adoption.

Emkay Global said Jio logged 15.8 per cent revenue CAGR over FY24-26, with ARPU increasing from Rs 181.70 to Rs 214. "It saw  subscriber additions of 4.26 crore during this period. Its growth strategy builds on this base. JPL aims to extend mobility leadership via 5G and 2G-to-4G/5G migration, make home broadband its next major growth driver, deepen enterprise and SME relationships through managed services, and offer its in-house tech stack to operators overseas," Emkay Global said while recommending a 'subscribe' to the issue.

Key risks 

Emkay Global said spectrum costs or other regulatory changes; competitive intensity affecting ARPU and churn; dependence on Reliance Group entities; concentration in passive infrastructure and equipment vendors; and leverage and foreign-exchange exposure are key risks for Jio.