MCX stock: UBS raises price target to Rs 12,000, here's why

Swiss investment bank UBS has raised its price target on Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) shares to ₹12,000 from ₹10,000 on robust earnings performance in October and continued product innovations. The revised target signals a potential 26% upside from Monday’s closing price of ₹9,531.50, following a 3.12% gain for the session and pushing MCX’s 2025 advance to nearly 52%. Trading volume was elevated as the exchange rebounded from a technical outage last week, during which operations resumed at the Disaster Recovery site, though the specific nature of the glitch was not disclosed.

UBS highlighted that MCX’s October earnings, if annualised, equate to approximately ₹320 per share, reaching the levels previously forecast for FY30. By comparison, consensus estimates for earnings per share stand at Rs 158 for FY26 and Rs 191 for FY27.

UBS has upgraded its earnings per share projections by 27% for FY26 and 23% for FY27. The brokerage continues to see room for further upgrades, even if October’s high trading volumes moderate, attributing recent strength to elevated bullion prices, increased market volatility, and rising interest in energy commodities.

New product launches, such as smaller-sized gold contracts, now contribute around 40% of the gold trading value—up from 30% in April 2025. The introduction of weekly and fortnightly options could provide additional momentum, contingent on regulatory clarity regarding short-duration contracts.

MCX’s key competitors in the commodity exchange segment include the National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) and Indian Commodity Exchange (ICEX), both operating in the same regulatory environment. The recent outage, while managed through the exchange's DR site, has not materially impacted analyst sentiment or future growth projections.

The anticipation of regulatory approval for expanded options trading, together with ongoing product diversification, may enhance MCX’s market position. Market analysts suggest these developments could further support share price performance, with the stock’s 52-week high and low to be tracked for continued investor interest.

UBS’s outlook underscores the evolving landscape for commodity trading in India, with MCX seen as well-positioned for future growth if momentum in earnings and product expansion persists.