'Multi-month rally...' - Why Nifty ETFs, Reliance shares lead portfolio strategy of this market expert | EXCLUSIVE

Amit Goel, Co-founder & Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, in an exclusive conversation with Shailendra Bhatnagar of Business Today Television discussed and outlined what is the journey ahead in the stock market from here and what beckons investors bulls as well as bears on Dalal street.

'Multi-month rally has already begun; should continue to rally right up till July...'

"The market has behaved rather well in April considering that crude oil has not come down so much and the geopolitical situation has not improved considerably but the markets have done broadly well considering the circumstances around us and we remain bullish on the market for the near term at this point of time and we do believe that a multi-month rally has already begun in the Indian markets and also in the global markets; bottomed out around 3rd to the 4th week of March and I vividly remember that I was on air with you at that point of time as well. And my understanding is that this market should rally not just for the month of May but it should continue to rally right up till July," Amit Goel said.

"Of course, I would want to give a caveat here that it's a little binary at the moment. So there is a very high probability I would ascribe it as nothing less than 80% that the Strait of Hormuz is going to  get opened in the next couple of weeks in which case this 80% probability will hold and in which case a truly powerful global equities rally should get unleashed and should materialize over the next two to three months," Goel added.

Goel further said, "The 20% probability in my opinion is for a possibility that the Strait of Hormuz doesn't open up in which case a good chunk of the gains that we have made in the last four odd weeks may get frittered away but I would ascribe it a much lower probability than the probability of things getting resolved instead of the Strait of Hormuz getting opened, and secondly, I think that the upside side in the first scenario is probably more meaningful and more powerful than the downside in the second scenario. So, so we remain quite bullish at this point of time."

 

WATCH FULL CONVERSATION HERE

 

 

'Reliance Industries, Nifty ETF...'

When asked about the best case scenario when the Strait of Hormuz is open and he has a lot of deployable cash which is always the case where will this money go in, Goel answered, "So, because we are positive in the markets only for let's say about 3 months and not for much longer. So, we would continue to avoid small caps and midcaps broadly as a category but of course within that space some stocks and some themes do look interesting but majority of the portfolio is going to be invested in diversified large caps and basically Nifty ETF is something that we are already sitting quite overweight on in our portfolio. Then Nifty private bank is also looking good. And, then some individual large cap stocks like Reliance Industries - they are also looking good and we are not averse to you know once we get more clarity then we are not averse to looking for some really great small cap and midcaps as well. Though broadly speaking that is a category which I want to refrain from at this point and the bar is very high in my opinion for us to select some small caps and midcaps to be a part of the portfolio but we would be pretty liberal with our allocation on the large caps and particularly in the diversified category and particularly among the bellwethers like Reliance Industries."