Nalco shares: Buy, hold or sell? Target price after 14% rise this year

Antique Stock Broking has maintained its 'Buy' rating on National Aluminium Company Ltd (Nalco) with a target price of Rs 480, valuing the stock at six times 1HFY29E EV/EBITDA. The brokerage said the call follows its meeting with the company management, which highlighted record alumina and aluminium production and sales volumes in FY26, along with the highest-ever first-quarter sales volume in 1QFY27.

Nalco shares are up 14 per cent so far in 2026. Antique Stock Broking said the company’s operational and cost leadership remained strong, and that firm aluminium prices, rising alumina volumes and cost-saving measures could support revenue and margins.

The brokerage said spot LME aluminium prices are currently about 8 per cent lower than the Q1FY27 average, but 21.2 per cent higher year-on-year, and are expected to remain range-bound in FY27. Global alumina futures contract prices are 10.4 per cent higher than the 1QFY27 average, while the management expects prices to recover further.

Antique Stock Broking said Nalco’s new bauxite mine at Pottangi and its new 1 mtpa alumina refinery are expected to commence this year and add meaningful volume growth. For its 0.5 mtpa brownfield aluminium smelter expansion planned by CY2030, Nalco has signed a technology licensing agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium for its DX+ Ultra aluminium smelting technology.

The brokerage said firm aluminium prices and additional alumina volume would aid the topline, while lower bauxite mining costs, increased captive coal and rationalised employee costs would help reduce costs and support margins. It also said the domestic aluminium market is expected to grow at a 6.2-7.8 per cent CAGR till around 2030, supported by the Government of India’s power infrastructure push and rising adoption by automobile manufacturers.

Though input costs have risen, Antique Stock Broking said LME aluminium prices remain firm year-on-year and are expected to stabilise around current levels, while alumina prices are expected to recover. It added that additional volumes and cost-saving initiatives would help profits, and said, "We maintain a BUY rating with a target price of Rs 480, based on a target multiple of 6x 1HFY29E EV/EBITDA."