Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty down 85 points; levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are set to open on a muted note on Wednesday on the back of mixed global cues led by the renewed tensions between the US and Iran, which pushed crude oil higher. However, positive cues from the US and Asian markets also supported the sentiments, along with supportive quarterly earnings from India Inc.

A gradual up-move in domestic markets could continue if crude oil prices remain soft and concerns surrounding global energy supplies continue to ease, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Investor sentiment is likely to remain cautious as mixed signals emerge from the ongoing US-Iran negotiations," he said.
 

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 84.90 points, or 0.35 per cent, up at 23,894, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Asian shares rose on Wednesday ​as markets looked for signals that a shaky truce between the Us and Iran ‌will be extended. KOSPI zoomed 5 per cent, while Nikkei gained over 1.6 per cent. Hang Seng was marginally down.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record closing highs on Tuesday, as AI-fueled optimism offset anxiety over Middle ‌East peace talks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 118.02 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 50,461.68, the S&P 500 gained 45.65 points, or 0.61 per cent, to 7,519.12 and the Nasdaq Composite gained 312.21 points, or 1.19 per cent, to 26,656.18.
 

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
The dollar index was little changed at 99.09 after a 0.15 per cent gain in the prior session. Brent crude traded near $100 per barrel. US crude fell 0.89 per cent to $93.05 a barrel, and Brent fell to $99.06 per barrel, down 0.52 per cent. Spot gold rose 0.36 per cent to $4,522.14 an ounce. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.18 per cent to $75,883.90, and ether was little changed at $2,075.39.

The renewed US military action in the Middle East dampened hopes of an immediate US-Iran peace agreement and pushed  crude prices back higher and the rupee also came under pressure, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We continue to maintain a positive yet cautious stance and recommend focusing on quality stocks across sectors while keeping a close check on position sizing."
 

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,407.87 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,361.43 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 and Sensex outlook
Technically, the market took resistance near 24,100/76, 600 after a muted open and reversed. However, the short-term outlook remains positive. The 20-day SMA at 23,875/75,900 and 23,850/75,800 would act as crucial support zones for day traders. As long as the market is trading above these levels, the uptrend remains intact, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities

"On the higher side, 24,100/76,600 could be the immediate resistance zone for the bulls. A dismissal of this level could push the market up to 24,200–24,250/76,900-77,100. On the flip side, a break below 23,850/75,800 could lead the market to slip towards 23,700–23,600/75,300-75,000. The intraday market texture is non-directional and level-based trading would be the ideal strategy," he said.

Immediate support is now placed around 75,400–75,700, while resistance is seen near 76,700–77,000. Sustaining above the support zone may keep the broader structure stable, whereas a decisive breakout above resistance could revive fresh bullish momentum in the coming sessions. The overall market bias remains cautiously positive, said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.

The broader short-term sentiment continues to remain positive, and the possibility of a rebound in the coming sessions cannot be ruled out, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. On the upside, 24,200 is likely to act as an immediate resistance. On the downside, support is placed at 23,900. A decisive break below this level could lead to a correction towards 23,825."
 

Nifty Bank outlook
Nifty Bank moved higher initially, but faced resistance twice in the 55,500–55,550 zone, followed by profit booking at higher levels, dragging the index lower. Nifty Bank too failed to sustain above its 50-day EMA and a closer look at the RRG indicates that the private banking space remains better placed to outperform, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 55,500-55,600 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 56,000, followed by 56,400 in the short term. On the downside, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 54,700-54,600 zone," he added.

Nifty Bank formed a high wave candle with a small real body and shadows in the daily chart either direction signaling consolidation amid stock specific action on the monthly expiry sessions after previous two sessions strong up move. It will keep the bias positive and will open further upside towards 56,000 and 56,600 levels in the coming sessions, said Bajaj Broking.

"Index has immediate support at 54,000 levels, failure to hold above 54,000 will signal extension of the consolidation. While major short term support is placed at 53,000-52,500 being the confluence of the lower band bullish gap area and the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous pullback," it said.