Reliance Industries, PFC among Religare’s top 5 Diwali 2025 stock picks; explains why

Domestic brokerage Religare Broking has unveiled its top five stock picks for Diwali 2025, backing a mix of large-cap and sector leaders expected to deliver strong returns in Vikram Samvat 2082.

Leading the list are industry giants Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) and Power Finance Corporation (PFC), with the brokerage citing robust growth drivers and attractive valuations. The other picks include HDFC Life Insurance Company, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services, and Nuvoco Vistas Corp.

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL)

Religare has assigned a 'Buy' rating on RIL, with a target price of Rs 1,600, implying a potential upside of 16.4 per cent from its October 14, 2025, closing price of Rs 1,375. The brokerage is bullish on the conglomerate’s outlook, noting that its “consumer engines firing; new energy to drive the next leg”.

The recommendation is driven by RIL's consumer businesses, Jio and Reliance Retail, expected to be the main profit engines. Religare highlights Jio’s steady subscriber growth and rising ARPU from the 5G rollout, alongside Reliance Retail’s aggressive physical and digital expansion, as factors creating a "long runway of high-margin growth". Additionally, RIL’s New Energy giga-factories are approaching an "inflection point," moving from capital expenditure to revenue generation over the next 4-6 quarters. The brokerage believes the current valuation underestimates the potential of the New Energy and consolidated Media businesses, anticipating these catalysts will drive a re-rating. Consolidated revenue and EBITDA are projected to grow at a CAGR of 10 per cent and 15.1 per cent, respectively, over FY25-27E.

Power Finance Corporation (PFC)

PFC emerges as the top conviction pick with the highest potential upside among the five. Religare has given it a 'Buy' rating with a target of Rs 502, indicating a 26.6 per cent upside from its current market price of Rs 397. As India’s largest NBFC, PFC is seen as a key financier for the power sector, with growth “firmly anchored to structural tailwinds” such as renewable energy adoption and grid modernization.

The brokerage’s optimism is underpinned by PFC’s strong loan book growth, driven by renewed private sector capex, particularly in renewables. Profit After Tax (PAT) is projected to grow at a 12.3 per cent CAGR over FY25-27E, supported by stable Net Interest Margins of around 3.8 per cent and resilient asset quality. The valuation is based on 0.9x FY27E Adjusted Book Value, plus its stake in Rural Electrification Corporation (REC), which the report says supports "continued upside".

Other Diwali Picks

HDFC Life Insurance: With a target of Rs 870 (17 per cent upside), the insurer is favoured for its "sustained compounding through quality growth and digital scale". Strong distribution, stable VNB margins of 25.1 per cent, and expansion into underpenetrated Tier 2/3 markets underpin the recommendation.

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS): The brokerage has set a target of Rs 327 (14.3 per cent upside). Growth is linked to its parent, M&M, providing a steady loan pipeline. MMFS is expected to benefit from margin expansion and strategic diversification into SME lending and digital products.

Nuvoco Vistas Corp: The cement maker is recommended with a target of Rs 478 (12.4 per cent upside). Religare cites "operational efficiency and capacity expansion to cement growth," with revenue growth, margin expansion from cost controls, and the acquisition of Vadraj Cement strengthening its presence in Western India.