Reliance Jio plan discontinued: Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel, RIL shares in focus

Shares of listed telecom operators Bharti Airtel Ltd and Vodafone Idea Ltd will be in focus on Tuesday morning after Reliance Industries' (RIL) Reliance Jio Infocomm (RJio) decided to discontinue its entry-level plan of 1 GB per day at Rs 209 for 22 days and at Rs 249 for 28 days. Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel's base monthly plans also start at Rs 299 with 1 GB per day data, a media report suggested. The move raised hopes that average revenue per user (ARPU) for telecom operators may improve going ahead as competition eases. 

Stock analysts noted that June was a steady quarter for the telecom sector, with the benefits of July 2024 tariff hike in the base. The combined wireless revenue for three private telcos grew 16.5 per cent YoY. Blended wireless ARPU for the three private telcos rose 16 per cent YoY, while subscriber trends remained steady with 80 lakh net additions.

Ebitda for private telcos rose 23 per cent YoY, slightly better than MOFSL's expectations, driven by healthy incremental margins for RJio and Bharti. Among private telcos, Bharti remained the biggest gainer in 1QFY26, recording a 28 bps QoQ (up 206 bps YoY) gains in revenue market share (RMS). 

"However, it lost 15bp QoQ (though still gained 90 bps) in subscriber market share (SMS). RJio’s RMS remained broadly stable in 1QFY26, with 3 bps QoQ gain (still 67 bps lower YoY). It was the biggest gainer on SMS, rising 35 bps QoQ (up 22 bps YoY). Vodafone Idea's subscriber losses moderated to 5 lakh in 1QFY26. However, it continued to lose market share, with RMS declining 30 bps QoQ (down 140 bps YoY) and SMS declining 20 bps QoQ (-113bp YoY)," MOFSL said. 

MOFSL feels that further ARPU growth is likely to be driven by subscriber mix improvements for Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea, and rising contribution from home broadband for RJio over the coming quarters. 

"We continue to assume a 15 per cent (or Rs 50 per month) tariff hike on smartphone plans from December 2025. Both Bharti and RJio are accelerating the rollout of their home broadband, adding a combined 35 lakh net subscribers (adding almost 8 er cent of the industry’s subscriber base in just 1QFY26)," MOFSL said.