Senco Gold shares rally 12% after strong Q3 show; will this strong upmove sustain?

Shares of Senco Gold Ltd jumped sharply on Wednesday, rising 11.83 per cent to close at Rs 361.60, after the company reported a strong performance for the December quarter of FY26. The stock was last seen trading 12.09 per cent higher at Rs 362.45. Despite the sharp rebound, Senco Gold shares are still down 37.18 per cent over the past one year.

The rally followed a positive assessment from Antique Stock Broking, which reiterated its 'Buy' rating on the jewellery retailer and raised its target price to Rs 600 from Rs 560. The brokerage cited robust festive and wedding season demand as key drivers behind the company's strong quarterly performance.

Senco Gold posted revenue growth of 51 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in Q3 FY26. This was supported by healthy same-store sales growth, improved customer engagement and continued traction in diamond jewellery. Festive campaigns, fresh design launches and higher footfalls during Dhanteras and Diwali helped sustain demand.

The domestic brokerage highlighted that gold prices rose sharply during the quarter, with average prices increasing around 23 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 65 per cent YoY. Gold prices touched a record high of nearly Rs 1,40,000 per 10 grams in Q3 FY26, compared with about Rs 1,17,000 per 10 grams in Q2 FY26 and Rs 79,800 per 10 grams in the year-ago quarter. While higher prices supported strong value growth and investment-led demand, volume growth remained relatively muted.

Diamond jewellery continued to be a key growth area for the company. Antique noted that diamond jewellery sales value rose 36 per cent YoY in Q3 FY26. The brokerage believes sustained traction in studded jewellery could gradually aid margin improvement over the medium term.

Antique also pointed to Senco Gold's increasing focus on lightweight jewellery and budget-friendly offerings as a structural positive, helping the brand appeal to a wider customer base amid elevated gold prices. Following the strong operating performance, the brokerage raised its earnings estimates by 5–15 per cent for FY26 to FY28.

It has built in a revenue, Ebitda and earnings compound annual growth rate of 19 per cent, 26 per cent and 38 per cent, respectively, over FY25 to FY28E.

Separately, Sharad Avasthi, Head of Research (PCG) at SMIFS, told Business Today that Senco Gold is trading at decent valuations, with expected target prices in the range of Rs 400-420.